基于BCC-CSM2-MR模式的开都河流域未来气温降水趋势分析及径流模拟  

Future Temperature and Precipitation Trend Analysis and Runoff Simulation in the Kaiduhe River Basin Based on BCC-CSM2-MR Model

作　　者：宋昱锋 陈伏龙[2,3] 陈红波 丁占涛 吴国洋 罗鑫 黄森 SONG Yu-feng;CHEN Fu-long;CHEN Hong-bo;DING Zhan-tao;WU Guo-yang;LUO Xin;HUANG Sen(Xinjiang Kaidu River Basin Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,National Energy Group,Korla 841000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Architecture,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Ecological Hydraulic Engineering Corps in Cold and Arid Areas,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团新疆开都河流域水电开发有限公司,新疆库尔勒市841000 [2]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [3]寒旱区生态水利工程兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第9期1-5,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：优化分布式水文模型提高开都河流域中短期径流预报精度项目(CEZB220403598);国家自然科学基金项目(52169005);兵团科技创新人才计划项目(2023CB008-08);南疆重点产业创新发展支撑计划(2022DB024)。

摘　　要：径流的趋势变化影响着流域居民的生产生活,在全球变暖的背景下分析流域未来气候变化和径流演变趋势对指导流域生产生活有着重要意义。为此,以国家气候中心研发的BCC-CSM2-MR模式作为气象数据,分析了开都河流域未来不同排放情景下降水和气温的变化情况,并以此数据驱动SWAT模型模拟了不同气候情景下径流变化情况。结果表明,在4种气候情景下流域平均气温均有所上升,其中SSP5-8.5情景下气温上升最为明显,降水则会出现一定波动,流域未来径流在枯水期差异较小,径流受气候变化影响的差异主要体现在汛期。The trend change of runoff affects the production and life of the residents in the basin,and it is of great significance to analyze the future climate change and runoff evolution trend in the basin under the background of global warming.The BCC-CSM2-MR model developed by the National Climate Center was used as a meteorological data to analyze the changes of precipitation,water and temperature in the Kaiduhe River Basin under different emission scenarios in the future.And then the data-driven SWAT model was used to simulate the changes of runoff under different scenarios.The results show that the average temperature of the basin increases under the four climate scenarios,among which the temperature increase is the most obvious under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,and the precipitation fluctuates to a certain extent;The difference of future runoff in the basin is small in the dry season,and the difference of runoff affected by climate change is mainly reflected in the flood season.

关 键 词：BCC-CSM2-MR模式 开都河流域 SWAT模型 趋势分析 径流模拟 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]