新疆南疆地区农村人力资本投资对农民非农收入的提升路径研究——基于南疆四地州微观数据的考量  

Path Study on Rural Human Capital Investment to Increase Non-agricultural Farmer Income——Consideration Based on Micro Data from the Four Prefectures in Southern Xinjiang

作　　者：晁伟鹏[1] 刘凯鑫 张长江[1] CHAO Weipeng;LIU Kaixin;ZHANG Changjiang(School of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2024年第3期1-11,共11页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：新疆生产建设兵团维稳戍边智库项目(23BTZK08)。

摘　　要：基于微观视角对南疆四地州农村短期人力资本投资进行分解,探究南疆四地州农村劳动力非农收入提升路径。通过对南疆四地州调查的数据进行贝叶斯网络构建,预测所构建指标与非农收入之间的因果关系及重要性;通过fsQCA分析法,以11个前因条件为依托,提取南疆四地州农村农民非农收入的提升路径。研究结果表明:农户非农收入与劳动力健康投资联系最为密切,且农户非农收入受限于自身禀赋;新疆南疆四地州非农收入有四条提升路径:“健康投资+自身禀赋+培训投资”驱动型、“自身禀赋+健康投资”推动型、健康较差的全要素推动型和受教育较差的全要素推动型。综合四条路径可知,劳动者年龄、受教育水平、健康状况、是否有职业证书、教育支出、医药费是南疆四地州非农收入提升的核心条件;从短期来看,非农收入的提升得益于农户自身资源禀赋和上年的短期技术培训投资。基于以上结论,提出建议:重视南疆四地州农村人力资本开发,增强财政支农力度,优先健康投资,兼顾技术培训投资,着重教育投资,做好农村人力资源向人力资本的转换,更好地服务于新疆农业现代化。From a micro-level perspective,this research dissects the short-term human capital investments within the rural confines of Xinjiang’s southernmost four prefectures,delving into the strategies that could elevate non-agricultural labor earnings in these areas.Constructing a Bayesian network from survey data across four prefectures in southern Xinjiang,we forecasted the causal relationship and importance between the constructed indicators and non-agricultural income.Employing the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)method and considering 11 key antecedents,the research distills the pathways that could enhance the non-agricultural revenue of rural farmers in Xinjiang’s southern prefectures.The results show that the non-agricultural income of farmers is most closely related to labor health investment,and the non-agricultural income of farmers is limited by their own endowment.Four distinct pathways for augmenting non-agricultural income in Xinjiang’s southern regions have been identified:the“health investment+selfendowment+training investment”driven model,the“self-endowment+health investment”driven model,the all-factor driven model characterized by poor health,and the all-factor driven model marked by inadequate education.Based on the four paths,it can be concluded that the core conditions for increasing non-agricultural income in the four regions of southern Xinjiang are the workers’age,education level,health status,possession of vocational certificates,education expenditure,and medical expenses.In the short term,the growth in non-agricultural income is attributed to the farmersinherent resource endowments and investments in prior-year short-term technical training.Therefore,this article suggests that we should attach importance to the development of rural human capital in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang,enhance financial support for agriculture,prioritize investment in health,balance investment in technical training,and focus on investment in education to better serve the mode

关 键 词：南疆 非农收入 人力资本投资 贝叶斯网络 fsQCA 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]