基于通用模型平台的秦淮河流域水文预报技术探讨  

Discussion on hydrological forecasting technology in the Qinhuai River Basin based on a general model platform

作　　者：冯俊 黎东洲 马剑波 范子武[2,3,4] 吴皓明 刘国庆 梁云辉[5] FENG Jun;LI Dongzhou;MA Jianbo;FAN Ziwu;WU Haoming;LIU Guoqing;LIANG Yunhui(Qinhuai River Water Conservancy Project Management Office,Nanjing 210022;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029;Key Laboratory of Taihu Basin Water Resources Management of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029;Nanjing R&D Hydro-information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210029;Jiangsu Surverying and Design Instutute of Water Resources Co.,Ltd.,Yangzhou 225127)

机构地区：[1]江苏省秦淮河水利工程管理处,南京210022 [2]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [3]水利部太湖流域水治理重点实验室,南京210029 [4]南京瑞迪水利信息科技有限公司,南京210029 [5]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,扬州225127

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第9期15-20,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3202605);江苏省水利科技重大技术攻关项目(2023002);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y124003)。

摘　　要：秦淮河流域位于长江下游,其上游为山区、中游为平原、下游为感潮河网,流域内干支水系叶脉相连,水库、圩区、闸坝等水利工程众多,快速在线滚动洪水预报富有挑战。基于江苏省防汛抗旱预警调度智慧决策系统平台,研究了降雨径流、河段洪水演进、水库调洪等各类通用模型及其算法,考虑流域上游大中型水库及其调度影响,划分了适用于秦淮河水系特点的分布式预报单元,构建了秦淮河流域洪水预报模型,以2024年7月暴雨洪水前垾村控制断面为例进行验证。结果表明,利用在线通用模型算法能够实现快速洪水预报方案构建及其模拟计算,并且具备较好的准确度,可为秦淮河流域洪水预报与调度决策提供有力的技术支撑。The Qinhuai River Basin is located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,with mountainous areas in the upper reaches,plains in the middle,and tidal river networks in the lower.The trunk and tributary rivers in the basin are connected by veins,and there are numerous water projects such as reservoirs,enclosure region,dams and floodgates making rapid online rolling flood forecasting challenging.Based on the intelligent decision-making system platform for the early warning and regulation of flood control and drought relief in Jiangsu Province,this paper studies various general models and algorithms such as rainfall runoff,flood routing in river sections,and reservoir flood regulation,which can consider the influence of large and medium-sized reservoirs in the upper reaches of the basin and their scheduling impact,divide the distributed forecasting unit suitable for the characteristics of the Qinhuai River system,and construct and propose a flood forecasting model which is verified by the heavy rain and flood event in July 2024 with the control section of Qiancong Village.The results show that the online general model algorithm can realize the construction of rapid flood forecasting scheme and its simulation calculation with good accuracy,and can provide strong technical support for flood forecasting and scheduling decision-making in the Qinhuai River Basin.

关 键 词：洪水预报 秦淮河流域 通用模型平台 多模型耦合 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]