气候变化脆弱性与跨境银行贷款:来自辛迪加贷款的证据  

Climate Change Vulnerability and Cross-Border Bank Loans:Evidence from Syndicate Loans

作　　者：李兴申 谭小芬 刘子雨 Li Xingshen;Tan Xiaofen;Liu Ziyu

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,低碳治理与政策智能实验室,北京市海淀区100083 [3]中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2024年第9期62-87,共26页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(20&ZD101);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72403174);北京市教育委员会科学研究计划项目“全球金融风险变化对首都跨境资本流动的影响研究”(SM202410038011)的资助。

摘　　要：气候变化风险对全球金融市场的影响愈发重要,本文基于企业逐笔跨境辛迪加贷款数据,从微观视角检验了各国气候变化脆弱性上升对企业跨境银行贷款规模的影响。研究结果表明:一国气候变化脆弱性上升将导致本国企业获得的逐笔跨境辛迪加贷款规模下降。机制分析发现,气候变化脆弱性上升造成本国借款企业的流动性水平下降、债务违约概率上升,推升了境外贷款者的信贷风险溢价补偿需求,企业获得的逐笔跨境辛迪加贷款规模随之萎缩,全球美元流动性的收紧将放大这一影响。异质性分析发现,受气候变化脆弱性影响,贷款者将收紧信贷条件,减少长期、固定期限贷款发放。债务压力更大、处于“气候变化脆弱性行业”的企业受到气候变化脆弱性影响更显著。在考虑重大气候灾害事件等影响后,基本结论依然稳健。本文为气候变化风险对跨境银行信贷活动的影响提供了微观证据,也为各国更好地应对气候变化风险提供了有益借鉴。The impact of climate change risks on global financial markets is becoming increasingly significant.Based on data from corporate cross-border syndicated loans,this paper examines the impact of the rising climate change vulnerability on the scale of corporate cross-border bank loans from a micro perspective.The study finds that an increase in a country’s climate change vulnerability leads to a decrease in the scale of cross-border syndicated loans obtained by its corporations.The mechanism analysis reveals that the rising climate change vulnerability causes a decline in the liquidity levels of domestic borrowing firms and an increase in the probability of defaulting on their debts.This heightens the credit risk premium demanded by foreign lenders,thereby reducing the scale of cross-border syndicated loans obtained by corporations.The tightening of global dollar liquidity amplifies this effect.The heterogeneity analysis shows that,in response to climate change vulnerability,lenders tighten credit conditions and reduce the issuance of long-term,fixed-term loans.Firms under increased debt pressure and those in“climate change vulnerable industries”are strongly affected by climate change vulnerability.The main conclusions remain robust after considering the impact of major climate disasters.This paper provides micro-level evidence on the impact of climate change risks on cross-border bank lending activities and offers valuable insights for countries to better cope with climate change risks.

关 键 词：辛迪加贷款 跨境银行贷款 气候变化脆弱性 气候变化风险 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]