国家能力、合法性、执政精英与危机管控--以欧亚地区国家的社会危机为例  

State Capacity,Legitimacy,Ruling Elites,and Addressing Social Crises:Taking Social Crises in Eurasian Countries as Examples

作　　者：王耀正 王栋[2,3] 山川枝子 Wang Yaozheng;Wang Dong;Shanchuan Zhizi(Institute of Area Studies,Peking University;the School of International Studies,Peking University;Institute for Clobal Cooperation and Understanding,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学区域与国别研究院,北京100871 [2]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871 [3]北京大学中外人文交流研究基地,北京100871

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第9期63-95,161,162,共35页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局下全球化进路与人类命运共同体构建研究”(项目批准号:21&ZD172)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：欧亚地区国家经常遭遇因国内民众不满而引发社会危机,严重威胁了国家的安全与稳定。作者分析了欧亚地区国家在应对社会危机时产生截然不同结果的原因,提出了一个由国家能力、合法性和执政精英三项要素组成的理论分析框架。在梳理了危机导致的八种情景后,作者分别对各类情景进行了理论探讨和过程追踪,以发生在白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和俄罗斯四个国家的六场社会危机为案例检验了欧亚地区国家社会危机的影响因素及其应对模式。研究发现,如果一国的国家能力强、合法性高且执政精英彼此合作,那么该国有可能会成功化解危机。反之,当一国的国家能力强、合法性高以及执政精英合作这三项要素都缺失时,该国的社会危机就会滑向失控的状态。当三项要素中缺少某一项要素时,该国只有迅速采取行动并改变现有情景,社会危机才可能被化解。当三项要素中缺少两项要素时,该国必须依靠自身努力并接受外部帮助才可能使社会危机转危为安。Eurasian countries frequently encounter violence and social crises triggered by domestic dissatisfaction,which threaten their national security and stability.The authors analyze the reasons why Eurasian countries have different outcomes in addressing social crises and propose an analytical framework composed of three variables:state capacity,legitimacy,and ruling elites.After outlining eight scenarios that arise from crises,the authors conduct a theoretical discussion and use process tracing for each scenario.The study examines six social crises that occurred in four countries--Belarus,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,and Russia-as case studies to test the influencing factors and response patterns.The research finds that if a country has strong state capacity,high legitimacy,and cooperative ruling elites,it is likely to successfully resolve a crisis.Conversely,when a country lacks all three elements—strong state capacity,high legitimacy,and cooperative ruling elites-the social crisis is likely to spiral out of control.If one of these three elements is missing,the country must act swiftly and alter the existing scenario to potentially resolve the crisis.When two of the three elements are missing,the country must rely on both its efforts and external assistance to turn the crisis around.

关 键 词：社会危机 国家安全 国家能力 合法性 执政精英 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]