央行沟通公告有助于提升政策利率的传导效率吗?  被引量:2

Can Central Bank Communication Announcements Enhance the Efficiency of Policy Interest Rate Transmission?

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作  者:欧阳志刚[1,2] 胡雯华 OUYANG Zhigang;HU Wenhua(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University;School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区:[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院 [2]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出  处:《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第10期69-88,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基  金:国家自然科学基金项目(71973044);国家社会科学基金项目(22VRC016);国家高层次人才创新创业项目(20603)的资助。

摘  要:政策利率向货币市场短期利率的传导效率是央行实施货币政策调控的关键环节,针对这一关键环节,本文将央行沟通公告区分为明确货币政策操作目标的定量公告和未明确操作目标的定性公告,实证研究不同形式的央行沟通公告对政策利率传导效率的影响。研究发现:定量公告有助于提升政策利率的传导效率,定性公告影响不显著。在所有定量公告中,“小纸条”对政策利率传导效率的提升作用最显著。本文进一步构建沟通语调变化和文本相似度指标检验“小纸条”提升政策利率传导效率的路径。结果表明,“小纸条”沟通语调变化通过制造“新信息”提高公共信息精度,增强公众对公开市场操作政策的信任度,对政策利率传导效率产生影响。相邻“小纸条”间相似的沟通习惯和表达方式有助于公众准确理解货币当局意图,提高公众对公共信息的理解准确度,提升政策利率的传导效率。上述结果证明,定量公告有助于提升政策利率的传导效率,且央行沟通精度越高,政策利率引导效果越明显,“小纸条”具有常规货币政策沟通工具的效果。The report of the 20th Communist Party of China National Congress proposed to“deepen the reform of the financial system and build a modern central banking system.”Developing a modern central banking system requires facilitating a monetary policy mechanism,which starts with promoting interest rate liberalization.The initial and key link in the transmission of the monetary policy process is the transmission of policy interest rates to short-term interest rates in the money market.Therefore,the main goal of developing a modern central bank is to enhance the efficiency of the transmission of policy interest rates to short-term interest rates.Nevertheless,the short-term interest rate in China's money market has not fully followed the changes in the central bank's policy interest rate in certain periods,especially before 2015.For example,during the“Money Shortage”period in 2013,the short-term market interest rates were detached from policy interest rates.To enhance the efficiency of policy interest rate transmission,the People's Bank of China has been regularly releasing daily announcements since 2016,and for the first time added textual content explaining the rationality of the current open market operations and evaluating the liquidity status of the banking system.This communication strategy of the central bank has improved the efficiency of policy interest rate transmission,narrowing the gap between short-term market interest rates and policy interest rates after 2016.The efficacy of regulating monetary policy would be limited if the short-term interest rate does not shift in the direction of policy interest rate regulation.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to enhance the transmission efficiency of policy interest rates to the short-term interest rate in the money market to improve the effectiveness of a monetary policy.Based on this,this study divides announcements texts into quantitative and qualitative texts.It uses big data text technology to extract the two types of announcements for an em

关 键 词:央行沟通公告 政策利率传导 “小纸条”信息 

分 类 号:F822[经济管理—财政学]

 

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