中国农业减污降碳协同效应的量化评估与动态演化——基于边际减排成本的分析  

Quantitative Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution of the Synergistic Effect of Agricultural Pollution and Carbon Reduction in China:An Analysis Based on Marginal Abatement Cost

作　　者：闫坤[1,2] 唐丹彤 甘天琦 YAN Kun;TANG Dantong;GAN Tianqi

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院日本研究所 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院 [4]中南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第9期22-41,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“环境保护与经济高质量发展融合的机制、路径和政策体系研究”(编号:18ZDA051);中央专项基金项目“经济集聚影响农业绿色发展的效应与机制研究”(编号:PTS24012)的资助。

摘　　要：协同推进减污降碳是加快美丽中国建设、实现经济高质量发展的必由之路。本文立足农业源的减污降碳协同增效,基于边际减排成本视角,构建一种减污降碳协同效应的量化评估方法,对1998-2021年联合减排情况下全国层面、九大农区及省级层面的农业减污效应、降碳效应及减污降碳协同效应进行实证考察。研究得出以下结论:全国层面,联合减排情况下农业边际减污成本与边际降碳成本均小于单独减排下的相应成本,存在正向的减污效应与降碳效应,且二者呈现较好的协同趋势。在九大农区,除青藏高原区与黄淮海平原区外,其余农区减污降碳协同效应较好;华南区边际减污成本与边际降碳成本均相对更低,具备更大的减污降碳潜力。省级层面,各省份减污效应、降碳效应差异明显,减污与降碳效应均随环境规制的加强不断提升。拓展性分析发现,农业减污降碳效应的分布特征和动态演进呈现显著的区域性和阶段性特征。本文的研究结论为科学评估农业减污降碳潜力和制定减污降碳协同治理方案提供了政策依据。Synergistic promotion of pollution and carbon reduction is the only way to accelerate the construction of a beautiful China and realize high-quality economic development.Based on the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction of agricultural sources,this paper constructs a quantitative assessment method of the effect from the perspective of marginal abatement cost,and empirically examines the agricultural pollution reduction effect,carbon reduction effect,and their synergistic effect at the national level,the nine agricultural region level,and the provincial level under the joint abatement of pollution from 1998 to 2021.The study draws the following conclusions:at the national level,the marginal pollution reduction cost and the marginal carbon reduction cost of agriculture under the joint emission reduction situation are both smaller than the cost of individual emission reduction,and there are positive pollution reduction and carbon reduction effects,while the two show a better synergistic trend.Among the nine major agricultural regions,except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the Huanghuaihai Plain region,the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction in the rest of the agricultural regions is prominent;the marginal costs of pollution and carbon reduction in South China are relatively lower,and there is greater potential for pollution and carbon reduction.At the provincial level,there are obvious differences in the pollution and carbon reduction effects among provinces,and both pollution and carbon reduction effects are increasing with the strengthening of environmental regulations.The expanded analysis reveals that the distribution and dynamic evolution of agricultural pollution and carbon reduction effects are characterized by significant regional and stage-specific features.The findings of this paper provide a policy basis for scientifically evaluating the potential of agricultural pollution and carbon reduction and formulating carbon and pollution synergistic management programs.

关 键 词：减污降碳 协同增效 农业 边际减排成本 九大农区 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F724.6