未预期减税的环保效应:来自增值税税率下调政策的证据  

The Unanticipated Environmental Effects of Tax Cuts:Evidence from China's VAT Rate Cut Policy

作　　者：潘妍 张牧扬[2] 王辉 PAN Yan;ZHANG Muyang;WANG Hui

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学金融学院 [2]上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院 [3]湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第9期42-62,共21页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“官员治理与地方政治经济周期:高频宏观数据与微观机制分析”(编号:72273079);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“公共基建投资市场化下地方政府治理困境及破解机制研究:基于环境治理视角”(编号:2024SJYB0069);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科基金育才项目“公共基建投资市场化下地方政府治理困境及破解机制研究:基于环境治理视角”(编号:SKYC2024013)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在大规模减税情境下,如何在防范财政风险的同时强化生态环境建设是新发展阶段完善地方治理体系、推动经济高质量发展的重要着力点。基于2015-2020年地级市层面的面板数据,本文从地方环保收支行为视角构建统一理论框架,深入剖析增值税税率下调政策实施对地方环境治理的影响。增值税税率下调政策实施有效降低了地级市的细颗粒物浓度、二氧化硫浓度和一氧化碳浓度,带来意料之外的环保效应。机制分析表明,增值税税率下调政策实施导致地方政府选择通过强化生态环境执法来获得非税收入,缓解短期财政压力。这一政策的实施同时起到了规范地方生态环境执法的效果,有利于减轻环境污染。进一步分析表明,设置软经济增长目标约束与强环境保护目标约束的地方政府在面对减税政策冲击时更有可能通过强化生态环境执法来实现缓解财政压力和减轻环境污染的“双赢”结果。上述结论不仅为新发展阶段下中国环境质量改善现象提供了一个新解释,还对未来中国如何统筹协调减税政策和环保政策提供了借鉴。In the context of large-scale tax cut,how to strengthen ecological environment construction while preventing financial risks is the key to improving the local governance system and promoting high-quality economic growth in the new era.Based on the panel data at the prefecture-level from 2015 to 2020,this paper constructs a unified theoretical framework from the perspective of local environmental protection revenue and expenditure behavior,and deeply analyzes the impact of the implementation of the VAT rate cut policy on local environmental govermnance.The implementation of the VAT rate cut policy effectively reduces the concentration of fine particulate matter,sulfur dioxide,and carbon monoxide,bringing unexpected environmental effects.The mechanism analysis shows that the implementation of the VAT rate cut policy leads local govermments to choose to obtain non-tax revenue by strengthening ecological and environmental law enforcement to alleviate short-term fiscal pressure.Meanwhile,this method has the effect of standardizing local ecological and environmental law enforcement,which is conducive to reducing environmental pollution.Further analysis shows that local govemments with weak economic growth target constraints and strong environmental protection target constraints are more likely to achieve a"win-win"outcome of alleviating fiscal pressure and reducing environmental pollution by strengthening ecological and environmental law enforcement in the face of the impact of tax cut policy.The above conclusions not only provide a new explanation for the improvement of China's environmental quality in the new era,but also provide implications for how China can coordinate tax reduction policies and environmental protection policies in the future.

关 键 词：增值税 减税政策 环保收支 生态环境执法 环境质量 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]