新古典现实主义视角下日本印太战略的生成与演变逻辑  

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作　　者：潘万历 白如纯[2] PAN Wan-li;BAI Ru-chun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院当代中国研究所,北京100009 [2]中国社会科学院日本研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2024年第5期78-90,128,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

摘　　要：印太战略是日本因应中国崛起的制衡战略,该战略出台后经过两次主要调整。本文结合新古典现实主义,通过设置相关变量分析其生成、演变的内在逻辑。日本在2018年将该战略改称“印太构想”,并寻求改善中日关系,其实质是制衡能力不足导致其对制衡行为进行的策略性调整,并不代表对华制衡的方向出现变化。菅义伟、岸田文雄执政后,日本对华威胁认知进一步加深,加之制衡能力的提升,其对华制衡力度明显增强。日本印太战略的推进为中国崛起增添了外部压力,对此,中国需保持战略定力,妥善管控双方矛盾分歧,增信释疑,避免战略误判;同时要注重深化双方经济合作的层次和水平,加强与东南亚国家以及欧洲大国的合作,减少这些国家对日本的战略配合。The Indo-Pacific Strategy is a strategy of containment adopted by Japan to counter China's development,and has undergone two major adjustments since its launch.This paper aims to analyze,in Neoclassical Realism terms,the logic underlying the generation and evolution of the strategy by setting relevant variables.In 2018,Japan reframed the strategy as the"Indo-Pacific Vision"and sought to improve its relations with China.This,in essence,was but a strategic adjustment by Japan resulting from an inadequate containing power.Its containment against China,nonetheless,remains unchanged.During the reigns of Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida,as Japan's conception of China as a threat further deepened and its power of containment strengthened,the containment efforts by Japan against China saw a significant rise in terms of intensity.The advancement of the Indo-Pacific strategy adds external pressure to China's development.As such,China should maintain strategic resolve,properly manage the contradictions and differences with Japan,increase mutual trust and dispel doubts,and avoid strategic miscalculations.At the same time,China should focus on scaling up the areas and levels of China-Japan economic cooperation and strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries as well as major European countries,so as to reduce these countries'strategic cooperation with Japan.

关 键 词：日本印太战略 体系压力 威胁认知 制衡能力 中日关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]