近代中国南北方农业经营风险差异探析  

Analysing Difference of Agricultural Operation Risks in North and South China of Modern Times

作　　者：马烈 高超群[1] MA Lie;GAO Chao-qun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京市100836

出　　处：《南京大学学报（哲学．人文科学．社会科学）》2024年第4期66-80,156,共16页Journal of Nanjing University(Philosophy,Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：中国社会科学院“青启计划”项目(2024QQJH101)。

摘　　要：风险是农业经营面临的重要问题。灾害是农业经营面临的主要风险,近代北方的自然灾害较南方更多几乎是学界的共识,但尚缺乏实证性的分析与研究。本文通过量化统计,比较了近代中国南北方出现影响农业生产的灾害县次、爆发重大灾害的次数(及死亡人数),同时将南北方总县数与人口数的差异也纳入分析之中。结果显示,近代北方的自然灾害确比南方更严重。此外,灾害的爆发也会给农业经营带来一些社会性风险,包括市场波动、匪患等,通过对此进行统计与分析,结果发现,北方农业经营面临的市场波动风险大于南方;而北方的匪患至少不弱于南方。兵燹也是近代农业经营面临的社会性风险,总体来说北方遭受的兵燹要大于南方,但其对农业经营的影响有限。Risk is an important problem in agricultural operations.As for the main risks,it is almost an academic agreement that natural disasters occurring in the North of China were frequenter than those in the South in the modern times,and this entails an empirical analysis and research.The present quantitative study is done on the comparisons of the county-level number of disasters and of major occurrences of disasters,which had serious impact on agricultural production in the North and South of China in the modern times.It also at the same time contrasts the differences of the number of counties and population in the North and South of the country in its analysis.The results show that natural disasters in the North were indeed stronger than those in the South.In addition,the occurrences of natural disasters also brought such social risks to agricultural operations as market fluctuations and banditry issues.This paper also conducts a statistic research on these social risks with a finding that the risk of market fluctuations in agricultural operations was greater in the North than in the South.In the North,there were at least as many banditry issues as in the South.War ravages were also the risks in modern agricultural operations.It is general the North suffered more cases of war ravages than the South,but the impact on agricultural operations was limited.

关 键 词：农业经济史 南北问题 农业经营风险 自然灾害 

分 类 号：F329[经济管理—产业经济] K25[历史地理—历史学]