2015年中国北方沙尘天气过程模拟效果评估  

Assessment of Simulation Effectiveness for Sand and Dust Weather Events in Northern China in 2015

作　　者：丁徐林 张天宇 杨显玉 DING Xuling;ZHANG Tianyu;YANG Xianyu(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,The Aerospace InformationResearch Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2024年第5期608-617,共10页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：成都信息工程大学教师科技创新能力提升计划项目(KYQN202239)对本文的资助。

摘　　要：为更好地评估数值模式对中国春季沙尘天气的模拟效果,使用WRF-Chem模式模拟2015年春季发生在中国北方的7次沙尘天气过程,结合气象站地面资料与国家空气质量监测网络全国站点资料,使用3种统计参数(相关系数、平均偏差、均方根误差)对模拟结果进行系统性评估。结论表明,中国北方各区域地面气象要素模拟效果较好,但风速模拟值普遍偏高,导致戈壁沙漠地区的PM_(10)质量浓度模拟值普遍高于观测值。因模式模拟沙尘远距离传输过程的能力较差,华北与东北地区模拟的PM_(10)质量浓度值偏低。分析模拟时段典型城市,PM_(10)质量浓度模拟值与观测值的相关系数均在0.55以上,除包头市,戈壁沙漠地区城市偏差在100~200μg/m^(3),均方根误差在170~270μg/m^(3),北京市偏差为-25.35μg/m^(3),均方根误差为80.84μg/m^(3)。To better evaluate the performance of numerical models in simulating spring dust weather in China,the WRFChem model was employed to simulate seven dust weather processes that occurred in northern China during the spring of2015.By combining meteorological station ground data and national air quality monitoring network data from stations across the country.Three statistical parameters(correlation coefficient,mean bias,and root mean square error)were employed for a systematic evaluation of the simulation results.The following conclusions were derived from this study:The simulation results of ground-level meteorological elements in various regions of Northern China were generally satisfactory.However,the simulated wind speed values were generally higher,which led to the overestimation of PM_(10)concentration values in the Gobi Desert area compared to the observed values.The underestimated PM_(10)concentration values in North China and Northeast China were due to the poor ability of the model to simulate long-distance dust transport.Regarding the analysis of typical cities during the simulation period,the correlation coefficients between simulated and observed PM_(10)concentration values were above 0.55,except for Baotou City,where the deviation of the Gobi desert cities ranged from 100 to 200μg/m^(3),and the root-mean-square errors were between 170 and 270μg/m^(3).Beijing City had a deviation of-25.35μg/m^(3)and a root-mean-square error of 80.84μg/m^(3).

关 键 词：WRF-Chem 沙尘天气过程 戈壁沙漠地区 近地面10m风速 PM_(10) 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]