2014-2016年成都市多种污染物对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响研究  

The Effects of Multiple Pollutants on Cardiovascular Mortality in Chengdu during 2014-2016

作　　者：尹春苗 张莹 杨涵 YIN Chunmiao;ZHANG Ying;YANG Han(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Institute of Meteorological Environment and Public Health,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Sichuan Provincial Field Science Observation and Research Station,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室气象环境与健康研究院,四川成都610225 [2]成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2024年第5期618-625,共8页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42005136);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2020M670419);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602004)。

摘　　要：为研究成都市大气污染物的健康风险效应,利用2014-2016年心脑血管疾病逐日死亡人数资料、同期气象要素和4种大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)和O_(3))资料,采用贝叶斯核函数机器回归模型探析多种污染物分别在单滞后(0 d)及累积滞后(1~3 d)情况下共同作用对当地心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响效应。结果如下:(1)NO_(2)在累积滞后3 d时,健康风险效应才开始显著,并且浓度越高效应越明显。在不同的滞后时间及不同的污染物浓度混合条件下,对健康风险效应起主导作用的污染物也不同,当大气污染物浓度均位于第25或50百分位数,单滞后0 d时起主导作用的污染物为O_(3),累积滞后1~3 d时起主导作用的污染物为PM_(2.5);当大气污染物浓度均位于第75百分位数,单滞后0 d及累积滞后1~2 d时起主导作用的污染物为SO_(2),累积滞后3 d时起主导作用的污染物为NO_(2)。(2)O_(3)和PM_(2.5)、PM_(2.5)和SO_(2)、O_(3)和SO_(2)、O_(3)和NO_(2)之间对疾病的影响存在交互效应。(3)随着4种污染物浓度的同时增加,心脑血管疾病死亡风险效应呈一个增加趋势,说明多种污染物混合对疾病死亡的影响存在协同作用。To explore the health risk effects of atmospheric pollutants in Chengdu City,the data on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease(CVD)deaths,meteorological elements,and four atmospheric pollutants(PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(2),and O_(3))during the same period from 2014-2016 were collected,and the Bayesian kernel function machine regression(BKMR)model was used to explore the effects of multiple pollutants on local cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths under single lag(0d)and cumulative lag(1~3 d)scenarios.The results were as follows:(1)The health risk effect of NO_(2)became significant only at 3 d cumulative lag,and the effect became more obvious at higher concentrations.Under different lag times and different pollutant concentration mixing conditions,the pollutants that play a dominant role in the health risk effect are also different.When the atmospheric pollutant concentrations are located in the 25th or 50th percentile,the pollutant that plays a dominant role in the single lag 0d is O_(3),and the pollutant that plays a dominant role in the cumulative lag 1~3 d is PM_(2.5);when the concentrations of the atmospheric pollutants are located in the 75th percentile,the pollutant that plays a dominant role in the single lag 0 d and cumulative lag 3 d is PM_(2.5).The dominant pollutant at single lag 0 d and cumulative lag 1~2 d was SO_(2),and the dominant pollutant at cumulative lag 3 d was NO_(2).(2)There was an interaction effect between O_(3)and PM_(2.5),PM_(2.5)and SO_(2),O_(3)and SO_(2),O_(3)and NO_(2)on the effect of disease.(3)As the concentration of the four pollutants increased simultaneously,the cardiovascular disease mortality risk effect showed an increasing trend,indicating that there was a synergistic effect of the mixture of multiple pollutants on disease mortality.

关 键 词：成都 心脑血管疾病 大气污染物 贝叶斯核函数机器回归 协同效应 

分 类 号：X503.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程]