北极放大反馈机理研究进展及未来“新北极”背景下中-高纬度耦合反馈机理展望  

Research Progress of Arctic Amplification Feedback Mechanism and Prospect of Mid-High Latitude Coupling Feedback in the“New Arctic”Context in the Future

作　　者：黄菲[1,2] 丁瑞昌 张涵 赵传湖[1] 王玉玮 石剑 杨宇星 王宏 Huang Fei;Ding Ruichang;Zhang Han;Zhao Chuanhu;Wang Yuwei;Shi Jian;Yang Yuxing;Wang Hong(Frontiers Science Center for Deep OceanMultispheres and Earth System,Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266237,China;Institute of Oceanography,Academy of Chinese,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学深海多圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心,物理海洋教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100 [2]崂山实验室,山东青岛266237 [3]中国科学院海洋研究所,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第10期66-75,共10页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFA0607004);国家自然科学基金项目(42430411,42075024,42205029,41906194)资助。

摘　　要：近年来全球变暖加剧,北极海冰快速融化,北极近地面增温速率是全球平均的2~4倍,即北极放大效应。北极放大不仅影响北极地区的气候与生态环境,还会造成极外地区的极端天气气候事件频发。北极放大的形成需要有使北极增温的正反馈过程持续作用,目前被广泛接受的正反馈机理包括冰雪反照率反馈、温度反馈(包含普朗克反馈和温度直减率反馈)、水汽和云反馈等。但这些基于辐射平衡的热力正反馈过程仅能贡献北极放大约1.4~2.3倍的增暖速率,远远低于当前近4倍的北极放大率。在包含了上述多种正反馈机制共同作用的最新CMIP6耦合模式的模拟中,依然普遍低估了北极放大率和海冰融化速率,特别是21世纪初北极逐渐进入海冰加速减退、海冰流动性加快的“新北极”气候态,北极放大率从之前的高估转为明显低估,意味着海冰融化的动力作用在增强。基于中纬度海洋和大气向极热输送的动力作用分析,本文提出了一种有利于加速北极放大的中纬度-北极之间动力-热力耦合反馈机理的科学猜想。In recent years,global warming has intensified,the Arctic sea ice has melted rapidly.The near-surface warming rate of the Arctic is more than twice the global average,that is,the Arctic ampli-fication(AA).AA not only affects the climate and ecological environment in the Arctic region,but also causes frequent extreme weather and climate events in the extra-polar regions.The formation of AA re-quires a continuous positive feedback process that increases Arctic temperature.Currently,widely ac-cepted positive feedback mechanisms include ice and snow albedo feedback,temperature feedback(in-cluding Planck feedback and lapse rate feedback),water vapor feedback and cloud feedback.However,these thermal positive feedback processes based on radiative equilibrium can only contribute about 1.4~2.3 times the warming rate of AA,which is much lower than the current AA of nearly 4 times.In the simulation of the latest CMIP6 coupled model,which includes the combined effects of the above multiple positive feedback mechanisms,the AA and sea ice melting rate are still generally underestimated.Espe-cially after the Arctic gradually entered the“new Arctic”climate state with accelerated sea ice decline and accelerated sea ice mobility in the early 21st century,the AA changed from the previous overestima-tion to a significant underestimate.That means the dynamics of sea ice melting are increasing.Based on the analysis of the dynamic action of the mid-latitude ocean and atmosphere to the extreme heat trans-port,a scientific hypothesis of the dynamic and thermodynamic coupling feedback mechanism between the mid-latitude and the Arctic is proposed to accelerate AA.

关 键 词：北极放大 反馈 中-高纬度 耦合反馈 

分 类 号：P732.5[天文地球—海洋科学]