多元统计分析方法在人口年龄结构分析中的应用——以宿迁市宿豫区为例  

Application of Multivariate Statistical Analysis Method in Population Age Structure Analysis——Through Taking Suyu District,Suqian City as an Example

作　　者：周琳 姜宇凡 孙波 费绍金[1] Zhou Lin;Jiang Yufan;Sun Bo;Fei Shaojin(College of Arts and Sciences,Suqian University,Suqian 223800,China)

机构地区：[1]宿迁学院文理学院,江苏宿迁223800

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2024年第17期28-31,共4页Heilongjiang Science

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目“江苏乡村振兴战略实施评价指标体系与评价方法研究”(2019SJA2006);宿豫区第七次全国人口普查招标课题“宿豫区人口年龄结构时空变动特征及其对公共资源配置的影响分析”(2021Z10);江苏省2023年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202314160042Y)。

摘　　要：以宿迁市宿豫区所辖的街道、乡镇为单位,利用2015—2020年的人口统计数据及历年国民经济与社会发展统计报告,分析人口年龄结构的静态特征与动态特征。研究结果显示,宿豫区人口年龄结构具有地域性特征,相近区域相似,不同区域差异明显。对宿豫区少儿人口、劳动力人口和老年人口的占比变化趋势做回归分析发现,三个系数与年份显著相关。利用主成分分析法探讨出生率、死亡率、城镇化、富裕程度等影响年龄结构的因素发现,出生率仍是主要影响因素,城镇化率也是重要影响因素。基于此,通过科学规划公共服务场所与设施、鼓励生育“二孩”“三孩”、做好教育服务设施规划、加大对养老产业的投入力度等策略应对宿豫区人口年龄结构变化,可为政府部门制定相关规划提供参考。Through taking the streets and towns under the jurisdiction of Suyu District,Suqian City as units,the study analyzes the static and dynamic characteristics of population age structure with the demographic data and the statistical reports of national economic and social development from 2015 to 2020.The research results show that the population age structure of Suyu District has regional characteristics,which shows similarities in close regions,and obvious differences in different regions.The study conducts regression analysis of the change trend of the proportion of children population,labor population and elderly population in Suyu District.It is found that the three coefficients are significantly correlated with the year.The study investigates the influencing factors of age structure,such as birth rate,death rate,urbanization and affluence,etc.,with principal component analysis.It is found that birth rate is still the main influencing factor,and urbanization rate is also an important influencing factor.Based on this,it is suggested to scientifically plan public service places and facilities,encourage the birth of“two children”and“three children”,make good planning of educational service facilities,and increase investment in the elderly care industry to cope with the changes in the age structure of the population in Suyu District,and to provide reference for government departments to make relevant plans.

关 键 词：多元统计分析 年龄结构 人口老龄化 出生率 宿迁市 宿豫区 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]