人口老龄化对医疗费用的影响及其影响机制研究——基于中介效应和调节效应分析  

Research on the Effect of Population Aging on Medical Expenses and Its Mechanism:Based on the Analysis of Mediating and Regulating Effect

作　　者：刘成正 卫星辰 李珊珊[2] 丁锦希[1,3] LIU Chengzheng;WEI Xingchen;LI Shanshan;DING Jinxi(School of International Pharmaceutical Business,China Pharmaceutical University,Nanjing 211198,China;School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China;Pharmaceutical Market Access Policy Research Center,China Pharmaceutical University,Nanjing211198,China)

机构地区：[1]中国药科大学国际医药商学院,南京211198 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100091 [3]中国药科大学医药市场准入政策研究中心,南京211198

出　　处：《科技和产业》2024年第18期134-141,共8页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年的省级面板数据,利用中介效应和调节效应分析我国人口老龄化对医疗费用的影响以及其影响机制。结果发现,人口老龄化显著促进了医疗费用的上升,中介效应的结果显示人口老龄化会进一步加剧医生诱导需求行为,引起医疗费用的不合理增长;调节效应的结果显示随着收入约束的放松,人口老龄化对医疗费用的影响也随之增加,同时也进一步促进了医生的诱导需求行为。地区间异质性分析表明,东部地区医疗费用更容易受到老龄化的正向影响,西部地区医疗费用容易受诱导需求影响,且经济发展对该影响的正向调节作用更强。因此,在费用控制和健康老龄化的背景下,我国应进一步完善健康导向的医疗服务体系建设,减少不必要的医疗支出,针对老年人等弱势群体建立有针对性的医疗行为引导和监管机制,提高医疗资源的使用效率。同时,针对不同地区的问题,进行精准施策。Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021,the impact of population aging on medical expenditure and its mechanism was analyzed by using the mediating effect and moderating effect.The results show that population aging significantly promoted the increase of medical expenses in China,and the intermediary effect shows that population aging will further aggravate the behavior of induced demand of doctors,and cause the unreasonable increase of medical expenses in China.The moderating effect shows that with the relaxation of income constraints,the impact of population aging on health care costs in China has increased,and this has further stimulated physician induced demand behavior.Inter-regional heterogeneity analysis shows that medical expenses in the eastern region of China are more susceptible to the positive impact of aging,while medical expenses in the western region are more susceptible to induced demand,and economic development has a stronger positive moderating effect on this impact.Therefore,the construction of a health-oriented medical service system should be improved and targeted medical behavior guidance and supervision mechanisms should be established for vulnerable groups such as the elderly.At the same time,precise measures should be taken to address problems in different regions.

关 键 词：老龄化 费用控制 诱导需求 经济增长 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]