经济政策不确定性、区域经济合作与全球粮食贸易增长  

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Regional Economic Cooperation and Global Food Trade Increase

作　　者：魏艳骄 郁淮娣 朱晶[2] WEI Yanjiao;YU Huaidi;ZHU Jing

机构地区：[1]扬州大学商学院,扬州225127 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第10期43-55,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“我国粮食供需格局演变与开放条件下的粮食安全政策研究”(71934005);国家自然科学基金青年项目“粮食安全目标下中国畜产品进口产品结构与市场布局优化研究:基于饲料粮替代视角”(72103177);国家自然科学基金青年项目“奶牛福利保障技术采纳:强度测度、效应评估与决策驱动”(72203034)。

摘　　要：本文利用全球30个主要粮食贸易国的粮食贸易数据,实证检验了全球经济政策不确定性上升对全球粮食贸易整体产生的影响,选取“一带一路”倡议、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)、北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)和欧盟4个具有代表性的区域合作框架,检验其对不同区域经济合作成员粮食贸易增长影响的差异,并构建模型进行机制检验。研究显示,全球经济政策不确定性上升促进全球粮食贸易整体有所增长,机制检验结果验证了全球经济政策不确定性上升倒逼不同区域、国家之间加强区域经济合作,促进区域内成员之间粮食贸易增长,尤其是以“一带一路”倡议为代表的区域经济合作深入、持续、广泛地开展,切实提升了共建“一带一路”国家粮食贸易合作水平和一体化程度,带动了全球粮食贸易增长。基于此,本文提出加强农业国际合作平台建设、持续深入推进“一带一路”倡议高质量发展等对策建议,以维护粮食国际贸易持续、健康发展,保障全球粮食安全。In this paper,the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on food trade all over the world were examined empirically with the food trade data of 30 major food trading countries.Members of the“Belt and Road”Initiative,RCEP,NAFTA and the European Union were selected as representative regional cooperation frameworks to test the differences of global economic policy uncertainty impacts on food trade growth of different regional economic cooperation members,and then the impacting mechanism were tested.The results show that food trade has increased overall under the influence of rising global economic policy uncertainty,which mainly result from the contribution made by regional economic cooperation forced by global economic policy uncertainty to maintaining global food trade.Particularly,building the“Belt and Road”Initiative has been promoting high-quality cooperation regional economic cooperation,which helps a lot in continuously and extensively,effectively improving the level of food trade cooperation and integration of countries along the“Belt and Road”,and driving the growth of global food trade.Based on the above results,suggestions to increase and strengthen diversified exchanges and cooperation,accelerate regional economic cooperation,continuously and deeply promote the high-quality development of the“Belt and Road”Initiative were proposed so as to maintain the sustainable and healthy development of international food trade and ensure global food security.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 区域经济合作 粮食贸易 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F316.11[经济管理—世界经济] F746