黄河流域水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全时空特征及驱动因素  

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Collaborative Security of Water-Energy-Food Linkage System in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：李刚[1] 康迪 郝铭 梁流涛[1,3] 贺来喜 LI Gang;KANG Di;HAO Ming;LIANG Liutao;HE Laixi(The College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004;School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049;Key Laboratory of Digital Geographic Technology in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River,Ministry of Education/Research Center for Regional Development and Planning,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004;Henan Provincial Institute of Land and Investigation and Planning,Zhengzhou 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学地理与环境学院,河南开封475004 [2]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [3]河南大学黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室/区域发展与规划研究中心,河南开封475004 [4]河南省国土空间调查规划院,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2024年第5期84-91,142,共9页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY095)。

摘　　要：水、能源、粮食是实现黄河流域国家战略的关键要素与有力支撑。在分析水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全机理的基础上构建协同安全度评价指标体系,基于2000-2019年黄河流域85个地级市面板数据,采用改进的耦合协调度模型测度水-能源-粮食关联系统的协同安全度,利用核密度函数、空间计量模型探讨其时空特征及影响因素。结果表明:①2000-2019年黄河流域水-能源-粮食关联系统综合安全水平总体表现为上升态势,空间上整体呈现从东向西递减的态势;②研究期内黄河流域水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全度的空间差异变化较明显,空间格局由研究初期“下游>上游>中游”向研究末期“下游>中游>上游”演变;③社会发展水平、教育状况、创新投入水平和投资水平对协同安全度产生正向影响,经济运行水平、贸易水平和环境污染程度则产生负向影响。Water,energy and food are the key elements for realizing the national strategy of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the analysis of the collaborative security mechanism of the water-energy-food linkage system,a collaborative security evaluation index system was constructed.Based on the panel data of 85 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019,the improved coupling coordination degree model was used to measure the collaborative security degree of the water-energy-food linkage system in the Yellow River Basin,and the kernel density function and spatial econometric model were used to explore its spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors.It is found as follows.①From 2000 to 2019,the comprehensive security level of the water-energy-food linkage system in the Yellow River Basin is generally on the rise,and its spatial distribution pattern is gradually decreasing from east to west.②During the study period,the spatial difference of the collaborative security degree of the water-energy-food linkage system changed obviously,from the spatial pattern of"downstream>upstream>midstream"in the early stage of the study to the pattern of"downstream>midstream>upstream"in the late stage of the study.③Social development level,education level,innovation investment level and investment level have a positive impact on collaborative security,while economic operation level,trade level and environmental pollution level have a negative impact.

关 键 词：水-能源-粮食关联系统 协同安全 时空特征 黄河流域 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]