碳达峰异质情景下省域煤炭供需格局动态演变规律研究  

Study on the Dynamic Evolution Law of Provincial Coal Supply and Demand Patterns Under the Carbon Peak Heterogeneous Scenario

作　　者：邹绍辉[1,2] 崔雪源 吕俊峰 马骁 ZOU Shaohui;CUI Xueyuan;LYU Junfeng;MA Xiao(School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710054,China;Energy Economy and Management Research Center,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710054,China;China Petroleum Technology and Development Corporation,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西西安710054 [3]中国石油技术开发有限公司,北京100028

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2024年第9期263-274,共12页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL183)。

摘　　要：碳达峰目标下各省区煤炭产业调整加剧了我国煤炭供需格局的复杂程度,在碳达峰异质情景下分析我国省域煤炭供需格局演变趋势十分重要。引入碳达峰区域异质影响因子,构建了省域煤炭供需SD模型,选取2013—2021年历史数据作为输入参数,预测了2025年我国各省煤炭资源消耗情况,结合煤炭产能调整,计算并讨论了2025年各省煤炭需求缺口及煤炭供需格局。结果表明:2025年我国煤炭消耗格局向中西部转移,西部煤炭消耗集中度提升,“电煤消耗异地转移”现象持续存在;煤炭供给中心逐步往“三西”地区集中,富煤区域的煤炭生产能力有待加强;区域间供需矛盾逐渐缓和,煤炭长线运输压力减小,省内煤炭运输压力增大。研究结果对保障煤炭稳定供应及能源安全具有一定价值。The adjustment of coal industry in various provinces and regions under the carbon peak target has aggravated the complexity of China's coal supply and demand pattern.It is very important to analyze the evolution trend of China's provincial coal supply and demand pattern under the carbon peak heterogeneous scenario.The SD model of provincial coal supply and demand was constructed by introducing the heterogeneous influence factors of carbon peak area.The historical data from 2013 to 2021 were selected as input parameters to predict the consumption of coal resources in each province of China in 2025.Combined with the adjustment of coal production capacity,the coal demand gap and coal supply and demand pattern in each province in 2025 were calculated and discussed.The results are drawn as follows.Firstly,in 2025,China plans to shift the coal consumption pattern to the central and western regions,the concentration of coal consumption in the western regions will increase,and the phenomenon of“off-site transfer of electricity coal consumption”will continue to exist.Secondly,the coal supply center is gradually concentrated in the“three western”areas,and the coal production capacity in the coal-rich areas still needs to be strengthened.Thirdly,the contradiction between supply and demand among regions will gradually ease,the pressure of long-term coal transportation will decrease,and the pressure of coal transportation in the province will increase.The research results have certain reference value for ensuring the stable supply of coal and energy security.

关 键 词：碳达峰 情景分析 煤炭供需 演变规律 

分 类 号：TD98[矿业工程—选矿] F426[经济管理—产业经济]