基于CA-Markov-PLUS模型的佛山市土地利用及生态系统服务分析与预测  

Analysis and prediction of land use and ecosystem services in Foshan City based on CA-Markov-PLUS model

作　　者：蒋成庆 张明[1] 多玲花 赵昱茜 JIANG Chengqing;ZHANG Ming;DUO Linghua;ZHAO Yuxi(School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering,East China University of Technology,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2024年第3期130-136,共7页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金项目(23GL34)。

摘　　要：分析并预测生态系统服务不但有助于了解区域生态系统的运行状况,而且对制定有效的生态保护和恢复策略有重要意义。本文以佛山市为研究区,基于CA-Markov-PLUS模型预测分析了2010—2030年土地利用和4种生态系统服务空间布局变化,探讨了2010—2030年生态系统服务时空变化规律。结果表明:(1)在2010—2020年间,佛山市耕地、林地面积大量减少,向建设用地转换,在2020—2030年间,耕地和水域面积增加,林地面积减少,建设用地扩张速度下降。(2)对比佛山市2010年与2020年的生态系统服务指数,发现生境质量、碳储存量、土壤保持以及产水服务均有不同程度的下降,以土壤保持量下降程度最为严重;相较于2020年,2030年佛山市生境质量、碳储存的下降速度减小,土壤保持基本不变,产水量均值略有上升。(3)2010—2030年佛山市的综合生态系统服务水平先降低后升高,说明人为正向干扰有利于提高佛山市生态系统服务水平。实验结果将为佛山市生态保护进而实现高质量发展提供合理建议。Analyzing and predicting ecosystem services not only helps to understand the health of regional ecosystems,but also has important implications for formulating effective ecological protection and restoration strategies.Based on the CA-Markov-PLUS model,this paper analyzes the changes of land use and ecosystem services from 2010 to 2020,and discusses the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services in 2030.The results show that:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the area of cultivated land and forest land in Foshan City decreased significantly,and the net infl ow area reached 15457.95hm2,especially in Chancheng District and Nanhai District.(2)Comparing the ecosystem service index of Foshan in 2010 and 2020,it was found that habitat quality,carbon storage,soil conservation and water production services all decreased to varying degrees,with soil conservation being the most serious.In terms of space,Chancheng District and Nanhai District had the largest decline,followed by the northern part of Sanshui District and Shunde District.(3)Based on the CA-Markov-PLUS model,the predicted ecosystem services in 2030 showed that compared with 2020,the area of cultivated land and water area increased,and the growth rate of construction land area decreased,and the predicted decline rate of habitat quality and carbon storage decreased,while the soil remained basically unchanged,and the average water yield increased slightly.Based on the prediction results of land use and ecosystem services,this study can provide a reference for Foshan to enhance the future land resource management capacity and improve the contribution of ecosystem services.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 综合生态系统服务 CA-Markov-PLUS模型 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]