Megacity pathways in China under the dual carbon goal:The case of Shanghai  

作　　者：Weiduo Zhou Fengqi Zhou Guiyang Zhuang 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China [2]Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》2024年第3期241-249,共9页中国人口·资源与环境（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Social Science Fund of China[Grant No.21FJYB058].

摘　　要：The pathways to achieving carbon neutrality at the city level are diverse due to varying energy supply and demand conditions.Shanghai faces obstacles such as limited land resources,high costs of renewable energy technologies,and instability of renewable energy.These challenges hinder the city’s efforts to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual carbon).Therefore,Shanghai must identify and optimize its development path for renewable energy under the dual carbon goal.We employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform Shanghai(LEAP-SH)model to simulate the impact of policies,such as industrial upgrading,energy efficiency improvement,energy structure optimization,increased technical innovation on energy,and ecological restoration,on the carbon emission pathways from 2022 to 2060 using five different scenarios.Our results indicate that Shanghai has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality in 2059 by promoting carbon reduction,pollution control,and green expansion.Moreover,we determined that the manufacturing industry;power generation industry;and transportation,storage,and mail services are the three major sectors for emission reduction under the dual carbon goal.Furthermore,the capacity and output of coal-fired power plants will be gradually replaced by offshore wind power in the dual carbon pathway.Finally,this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions for Shanghai to attain the dual carbon goal and high-quality development.

关 键 词：Dual carbon goal Pathway Energy transformation Mega city SHANGHAI 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]