“双碳”目标下能源碳排放驱动机制及脱钩水平分析——以东北三省为例  

Analysis of Energy Carbon Emission Driving Mechanism and Decoupling Level under“Dual Carbon”Goal:Taking the Three Northeastern Provinces as an Example

作　　者：吕洁华[1] 吉静一 李超[1] 叶鑫怡 LYU Jiehua;JI Jingyi;LI Chao;YE Xinyi(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第10期39-46,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“温室气体控排与森林碳汇的匹配均衡分析及政策启示”(21BGL166);国家级大学生创新创业训练项目“东北三省能源碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素研究”(202310225250)。

摘　　要：在中国提出2030年前实现碳达峰的背景下,选取2006-2020年东北三省面板数据,对其能源碳排放时空分异及驱动机制进行研究,基于Tapio脱钩指数、追赶脱钩模型考察东北三省脱钩状态和与标杆省份的发展差距。结果表明:(1)东北三省2006-2020年的能源碳排放总量先上升后下降,即呈倒“U”型曲线;东北三省能源碳排放量总体呈辽宁省>黑龙江省>吉林省的分异特征。(2)人均GDP和能源强度分别是促进和减缓东北三省能源碳排放的关键性因素。(3)黑龙江省和吉林省碳排放和经济发展已经逐渐脱钩,具备碳达峰的条件,辽宁省脱钩类型复杂,尚未实现脱钩。(4)黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省与标杆省份追赶脱钩类型不同。Against the background of China’s proposal to achieve carbon peak before 2030,the panel data of the three northeastern provinces from 2006 to 2020 are selected to study the spatio-temporal divergence of their energy carbon emissions and the driving mechanism,and the decoupling status of the three northeastern provinces and the development gap with the benchmark provinces are examined based on the Tapio decoupling index and the catching-up decoupling model.The results show that:(1)The total energy carbon emissions of the three northeastern provinces from 2006 to 2020 show an inverted“U”-shaped curve with an increase first and then a decrease later.The overall energy carbon emissions of the three northeastern provinces are characterized by the divergence of Liaoning>Heilongjiang>Jilin.(2)GDP per capita and energy intensity are the key factors in promoting and slowing down the energy carbon emissions of the three northeastern provinces,respectively.(3)The carbon emissions and economic development of Heilongjiang and Jilin have been gradually decoupled,and have the conditions for carbon peaking,while the type of decoupling in Liaoning Province is complicated,and has not yet been realized.(4)Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning provinces have different types of catch-up decoupling from the benchmark provinces.

关 键 词：碳达峰 能源碳排放 驱动机制 Tapio脱钩指数 追赶脱钩 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]