半山区滑坡灾害危险性评价——GIS支持下基于Kuenm包优化Maxent模型  

LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SEMI——MOUNTAINOUS AREAS:OPTIMIZATION OF MAXENT MODEL BASED ON KUENM PACKAGE SUPPORTED BY GIS

作　　者：解晋航 石文君 张杰 张小亮 李章杰 王宇栋 XIE Jin-hang;SHI Wen-jun;ZHANG Jie;ZHANG Xiao-liang;LI Zhang-jie;WANG Yu-dong(Faculty of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Key Laboratory of Plateau and Mountain Geological Hazard Prediction and Early Warning and Ecological Protection and Restoration,Ministry of Natural Resources,Kunming 650051,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,昆明650093 [2]自然资源部高原山地地质灾害预报预警与生态保护修复重点实验室,昆明650051

出　　处：《地质灾害与环境保护》2024年第3期1-10,共10页Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation

基　　金：自然资源部高原山地地质灾害预警预报与生态保护修复重点实验室2022年开放基金(20220103)。

摘　　要：根据会泽县地处云贵高原半山区的地理环境特点,以滑坡灾害为研究对象,选取地貌、坡度、坡向、曲率、地形起伏度、降雨量、距道路距离、斜坡结构、高程9个评价因子,基于相关性分析和共线性诊断对其进行独立性检验。采用优化Maxent模型与加权信息量模型计算滑坡发生概率。基于GIS的自然间断法评价结果等级,通过合理性检验、敏感性检验及现场实地检验比较两种模型的合理性及准确性。结果表明:两种评价模型均能通过合理性检验,AUC值分别为0.902和0.769,优化Maxent模型精度更高,通过刀切法得出距道路距离因子贡献百分比最高,与野外调查的典型灾害点主要影响因子相吻合,其稳定、低、中和高的面积分别为1585.74 km^(2)(26.70%)、2138.42 km^(2)(36.90%)、1594.48 km^(2)(26.85%)和567.37 km^(2)(9.55%)。In order to explore the evaluation model suitable for the semi-mountainous areas, the landslide disaster in was selected as the research object, and 9 evaluation factors including landform, slope, slope direction, curvature, relief, rainfall, distance from road, slope structure and elevation were selected to test their independence based on correlation analysis and collinearity diagnosis. The optimal Maxent model and weighted information model were used to calculate the probability of landslide occurrence. The natural discontinuity method based on GIS evaluates the result grade, and compares the rationality and accuracy of the two models through rationality test, sensitivity test and field test.The results show that: Both two models can pass the rationality test, and the AUC values are 0.902 and 0.769, respectively. The optimized Maxent model has higher accuracy, and the main impact factors of typical disaster points are consistent with the optimized Maxent model. Its stable, low, medium and high areas are 1 585.74 km^(2)(26.70%), 2 138.42 km~2(36.90%),1 594.48 km~2(26.85%) and 567.37 km^(2)(9.55%), respectively.

关 键 词：半山区 滑坡 优化Maxent模型 加权信息量模型 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] P694[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P56[天文地球—地质学]