中巴经济走廊影响双边贸易边境效应的GSIM模型测度  

Bilateral Trade’s Border Effect on China and Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)

作　　者：肖冯 邓鹏辉 XIAO Feng;DENG Peng-hui(School of Economic and Management,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]喀什大学经济与管理学院,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《喀什大学学报》2024年第4期40-48,共9页Journal of Kashi University

基　　金：喀什大学校级课题项目“乡村振兴背景下喀什农村基层社会治理与经济发展耦合关联及互动路径”(20221782);中巴经济走廊高质量发展研究项目“‘双循环’格局下的中巴经济走廊高质量发展研究”(ZBJJZL2023A07)。

摘　　要：为了测算中巴经济走廊对新疆及巴基斯坦贸易边境效应的影响,本论文采用《世界银行》以及《新疆统计年鉴》农产品贸易数据,构建了2012—2017与2018—2021年两期贸易局部均衡模型(GSIM),测算结果显示:新疆与巴基斯坦贸易边境效应由2012—2017年间的25%,下降到2018—2021年间的20%,意味着走廊降低了新疆与巴基斯坦的贸易壁垒。2012—2021年间出口边境效应下降幅度比进口边境效应下降更多,说明10年间新疆出口贸易的增长要高于进口贸易的增长,表明新疆与巴基斯坦出口贸易潜力逐步释放,新疆提供的贸易便利化更多。新疆与巴基斯坦双边贸易边境效应下降主要归因于贸易政策的深化,经济活力增强,全要素生产率增强。2018—2021年间新疆与巴基斯坦的贸易成本相对于2012—2017年间降低了10.62%。走廊加深了巴基斯坦与新疆的相互贸易依存度,提升了双边贸易水平,削弱了贸易壁垒,降低了双边贸易成本以及对本土产品的偏好。In order to estimate the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)on the trade border effect between Xinjiang and Pakistan,this paper constructs two trade partial equilibrium models(GSIM)for 2012-2017 and 2018-2021,using the agricultural trade data of the World Bank and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook.The calculation results show that:the border effect on trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan decreased from 25 percent in 2012-2017 to 20 percent in 2018-2021,meaning that the corridor lowered trade barriers between Xinjiang and Pakistan.From 2012 to 2021,the decline of export border effect was more than that of import border effect,indicating that the growth of Xinjiang’s export trade was higher than that of import trade in the past 10 years,indicating that the potential of export trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan was gradually released,and Xinjiang provided more trade facilitation.The decline in the border effect of bilateral trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan is mainly attributed to the deepening of trade policies,the enhancement of economic vitality and the enhancement of total factor productivity.The cost of trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan in 2018-2021 decreased by 10.62%compared to 2012-2017.The corridor has deepened the mutual trade dependence between Pakistan and Xinjiang,improving the level of bilateral trade,weakened trade barriers,and reduced bilateral trade costs and preferences for local products.

关 键 词：边境效应 贸易成本 单边效应 替代弹性 进口依存度 

分 类 号：F541[经济管理—产业经济]