美国货币政策冲击、宏观经济波动与中国货币政策应对  

U.S.Monetary Policy Shocks,Macroeconomic Fluctuation and China’s Monetary Policy Response

作　　者：徐宁 丁一兵[1] XU Ning;DING Yibing(Economics School,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2024年第5期1-12,共12页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘十四五’期间我国经济增长趋势的实时测算与收敛特征分析研究”(21CJY062)。

摘　　要：2022年以来,美联储开启新一轮加息,这一政策变动引起了学界和实务界的广泛关注。为全面阐释美联储加息对中国宏观经济和货币政策的影响,利用时变格兰杰因果检验和分位数向量自回归模型全面评估美联储货币政策的外溢效应。研究显示:第一,美联储货币政策变动对中国宏观经济变量和政策变量的影响具有明显的时变特征,通常是在重大事件窗口期产生传递效应,而在常态化时期基本不会产生影响;第二,中国经济增长对美国货币政策变动的反馈较弱,但通货膨胀和跨境资本流动对加息冲击的反馈较为灵敏,因此,应警惕由美联储加息引发的通货紧缩效应和资本外逃风险;第三,在政策应对层面,中国货币政策调控具有明显的阶段特征,早期倾向于采取被动的“顺风而动”型调整以避免较大的经济波动,而随着经济体量逐渐上升,政策调整逐渐转向“以我为主”的主动型调节;第四,目前中国经济正处于后疫情时期的回升阶段,加息冲击对宏观变量和政策变量的影响较弱,这为“以我为主”型的宏观调控争取了宝贵空间,同时也为经济平稳复苏创造了有利条件。因此,政府应理性看待并正确认识现阶段美联储加息对中国宏观经济的综合影响,货币政策仍应坚持“以我为主”,为实体经济提供合理充裕的流动性,并不断扩大自身经济体量,加快培育完整的内需体系,打造顺畅联通的国内国际双循环,提高经济抵御外部冲击的能力,强化经济发展韧性,最终实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。Since 2022,the Federal Reserve has embarked on a new cycle of interest rate hikes,garnering significant attention from both academic and practical spheres.However,this recent monetary policy shift differs markedly from previous ones.First,in the decade following the subprime crisis,external monetary policy shocks typically leaned towards easing.In contrast,the current policy is characterized by tightening measures.Second,the Chinese economy,currently in an early stage of recovery,remains fragile and more susceptible to external shocks.Understanding the systemic effects of U.S.monetary policy under these circumstances is crucial,as it will inform proactive policy responses and serve as a foundation for maintaining economic stability within a reasonable range.This paper begins by summarizing the macroeconomic and monetary policy changes observed following previous interest rate hikes.It then employs a time-varying Granger causality test to examine the evolving correlation between the U.S.federal funds rate and China’s macroeconomic and monetary policy variables.Additionally,the quantile vector autoregressive(QVAR)model is used to analyze the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on China’s economy and policy variables across different stages of economic development.The research yields several key findings.First,the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy changes on China’s macroeconomic and policy variables exhibits clear time-varying characteristics,with noticeable transmission effects occurring during significant events,but minimal effects during normal periods.Second,while China’s economic growth shows limited feedback to U.S.monetary policy changes,inflation and cross-border capital flows are more sensitive to interest rate hikes.Consequently,there is a need to be vigilant about the risks of deflation and capital flight arising from the Fed’s policy actions.Third,in terms of policy response,China’s monetary policy adjustments have evolved.Initially,adjustments were p

关 键 词：货币政策冲击 美联储加息 宏观经济波动 通货膨胀 跨境资本流动 货币政策应对 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学] F124.8F822.0