数字基础设施建设对服务业“鲍莫尔成本病”的影响研究——来自中国地级及以上城市的经验证据  

Research on the Impact of Digital Infrastructure Construction on Baumol’s Cost Disease in the Service Industry——Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities

作　　者：杨翘楚 余典范 YANG Qiaochu;YU Dianfan(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of International Organization,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学商学院,上海200433 [2]上海对外经贸大学国际组织学院,上海201620

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2024年第5期32-46,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国核心技术自主创新突破口与实现路径的体制机制研究”(20BJY039)。

摘　　要：随着信息科技和产业变革的加速推进,数字基础设施为服务业的效率提升和转型升级带来更加突出的影响。基于中国服务业发展的实际,验证了服务业“鲍莫尔成本病”的存在性,并采用2011—2019年中国288个地级及以上城市数据,证明了数字基础设施能够有效缓解服务业“鲍莫尔成本病”,在利用工具变量回归和替换核心解释变量等稳健性检验后仍然成立。研究发现,规模经济效应和结构优化效应是数字基础设施建设缓解服务业“鲍莫尔成本病”的两个重要渠道,其中生产性服务业的传统空间集聚和虚拟集聚是实现服务业内部结构优化的主要方式,其作用受地区制度环境和地理区位等因素影响。在制度环境方面,市场化程度与知识产权保护力度较高、社会信任水平较高的城市,数字基础设施建设更有利于促进服务业高效率增长、缓解服务业“鲍莫尔成本病”;在城市规模方面,数字基础设施建设对于特大和大城市的服务业成本病具有显著的缓解作用。据此提出政府应加大数字基础设施建设投入,推动服务业产业结构的优化升级,营造良好的外部环境。In recent years,China has entered a new era dominated by the service economy.However,according to the Baumol-Fox hypothesis,labor productivity growth in the service sector lags behind that of the manufacturing industry.This has resulted in a significant shift of labor into the service industry,increasing the proportion of service-sector employment.An industrial structure dominated by the service sector may slow overall economic growth,a phenomenon known as“Baumol’s cost disease.”The development of digital infrastructure offers potential to mitigate these effects by enhancing both the manufacturing and service industries through improvements in consumption,investment,technological transformation,and production.Digital infrastructure can optimize industrial structure,improve efficiency,and create new opportunities for economic growth.This article uses data from 288 prefecture-level cities in China between 2011 and 2019 to examine how digital infrastructure construction can alleviate Baumol’s cost disease in the service industry.Through instrumental variable regression and robustness checks,the analysis shows that digital infrastructure can effectively counter this economic challenge.Mechanism testing reveals that economies of scale and structural optimization are the key channels through which digital infrastructure mitigates the negative effects of Baumol’s cost disease.Specifically,both traditional spatial agglomeration and virtual agglomeration in the producer service industry contribute to optimizing the service industry’s internal structure.The heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates that the impact of digital infrastructure on alleviating Baumol’s cost disease varies according to regional institutional environments and geographical factors.In cities with higher levels of marketization,stronger intellectual property protection,and greater social trust,digital infrastructure construction is more effective in promoting service-sector growth and mitigating Baumol’s cost disease.Additionally,la

关 键 词：数字基础设施建设 服务业生产率 鲍莫尔成本病 规模经济效应 结构优化效应 虚拟集聚 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F719