从中国人口迁移看未来人口城镇化路径——基于城市行政层级的人口吸引力分析  

Exploring the urbanization path from the view of migration in China:Population attractivity based on the urban administrative hierarchy

作　　者：张伟佳 孙斌栋[2,3,4] Zhang Weijia;Sun Bindong(Party School of Wenzhou Committee of the Communist Party of China,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang,China;Research Center for China Administrative Division,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Future City Lab,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Hainan Institute of East China Normal University,Sanya 572025,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]中共温州市委党校,浙江温州325000 [2]华东师范大学中国行政区划研究中心,上海200241 [3]华东师范大学未来城市实验室,上海200241 [4]华东师范大学海南研究院,海南三亚572025

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第9期1503-1512,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA049)资助。

摘　　要：在当前城镇化速度放缓的新形势下探索中国未来的城镇化路径具有重要的意义。本文基于多源人口迁移数据,探讨城市行政层级、城市规模与城市人口吸引力的关系,研究发现:随着城市行政层级提高和城市人口规模增加,城市人口吸引力总体上呈现增强的趋势,其中,直辖市、省会城市、计划单列市的吸引力高于一般地级市,更是远远高于县级市(县);以人均既有人口吸引迁入人口数来衡量,计划单列市、省会城市与更高层级、更大规模的直辖市的吸引力基本处于同一区间,意味着这些城市已经接近最大城市规模;动态来看,县级市(县)的人口吸引力在增强,而其他层级城市的人口吸引力在下降;农业户口的迁移人口较城市户口迁移人口更倾向于向低层级城市迁移。当前以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化政策是在城镇化速度放缓形势下推进城镇化进程、促进城乡协调发展的需要,符合人口迁移的趋势,也适应了农村地区待城镇化主体的需求特征。鉴于县级市(县)的人口吸引力不足,农村人口向县级市(县)转移势必是政策支持型的城镇化,这与向高层级城市自发迁移的城镇化不是非此即彼的,而应是并行不悖的。市场机制与政府作用的有机结合正是中国治理优势所在。此外,东中西部地区的省会城市具有基本相同的人口吸引力。因而,在人口向中西部回流的大背景下,不同省份的城镇化宜以省会城市为中心自成体系;在省会城市开始面临集聚不经济的背景下,发展省域内副中心城市是重要选择。It is of great significance to explore the future urbanization path of China under the background of the slowing urbanization.Based on the multi-source migration data,this article discusses the relationship between urban administrative hierarchy,urban size and urban population attractivity.With the increase of urban administrative hierarchy and urban size,the urban population attractivity increase.The attractivity of municipalities(province-level city),provincial capital cities and separately planned cities are higher than that of ordinary prefecture-level cities,especially far higher than that of county-level cities(counties).Measured by the number of people attracted by the existing population per capita,the attractivity of separately planned cities,provincial capital cities and higher-level and larger municipalities(province-level city)is basically in the same range,which means that these cities are already close to the maximum city size.The population attractivity of county-level cities(counties)is increasing dynamically,while those of other cities are decreasing.Rural migrants are more inclined to migrate to low-level cities than urban migrants.The new urbanization policy,which takes counties as important carriers,is necessary to advance the urbanization process and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.The policy is also in line with the trend of population migration,and adapts to the urbanization of rural areas.In view of the lack of population attractivity of county-level cities(counties),the transfer of rural population to county-level cities(counties)would be a policy-supported urbanization,which is simultaneous with the spontaneous migration to high-level cities.The organic combination of market and government is precisely the advantage of China’s governance.In addition,the provincial capital cities of the eastern,central and western regions almost have the same population attractivity.Therefore,the urbanization of different provinces can form a system with provincial capital c

关 键 词：人口迁移 城市人口吸引力 城镇化 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]