气候变化对典型区域宜居影响及适应策略研究  

Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Livability and Adaptation Strategies in Typical Regions

作　　者：周凌羽 冒立鑫 王开强 王姝宇 ZHOU Lingyu;MAO Lixin;WANG Kaiqiang;WANG Shuyu(Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,Liaoning,China;Minle Meteorological Bureau,Zhangye 734500,Gansu,Chian)

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学,辽宁沈阳110866 [2]民乐县气象局,甘肃张掖734500

出　　处：《高原气象》2024年第5期1344-1354,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(22JR5RA513)。

摘　　要：气候变化对城市的宜居性带来重大影响,分析气候变化趋势,并制定相应的适应性策略,有助于提升典型区域的宜居性,减轻和适应气候变化带来的负面影响。本文以广东省深圳市为例,分析了2008-2022年气温、风速、空气质量指数、相对湿度等多种气候因素的变异规律,利用熵权法建立了宜居指数评估模型,分析了宜居指数的变异规律,明确了宜居指数的主要环境制约因素,并在此基础上提出了社区尺度区域相应的适应性优化策略,最后验证了适应策略的应用效果。结果表明:近15年来,深圳市宜居指数呈下降趋势,从非常宜居下降到比较宜居,风速下降、气温升高和紫外线增强是导致其宜居指数下降的主要环境控制因子。民居适应性建造与改造和社区绿化可明显提高社区尺度区域的宜居性,但仍无法改变由于气候变化所导致的宜居指数下降趋势。研究结果可为城市建设者、管理者和相关人员进行城市规划设计提供参考。Climate change has significant implications for the livability of cities.Analyzing climate change trends and developing corresponding adaptive strategies can enhance the livability of typical regions and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.In this study,Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province was taken as an example to analyze the variation patterns of various climate factors including temperature,wind speed,Air Quality Index(AQI),and relative humidity from 2018 to 2022.A livability index assessment model was established using the entropy weight method to analyze the variation patterns of the livability index.The main environmental constraints on the livability index were identified,and adaptive optimization strategies at the community scale were proposed based on these findings.The application effect of the adaptive strategies was subsequently validated.The results indicate that the livability index of Shenzhen City had been decreasing over the past 15 years,transitioning from highly livable to moderately livable.The main environmental factors contributing to the decline in livability index were identified as decreasing wind speed,increasing temperature,and enhanced UV radiation.The construction and renovation of adaptive residential buildings and greening of communities significantly improve the livability at the community scale.However,they are unable to reverse the trend of decreasing livability index caused by climate change.The findings of this study can provide valuable insights for urban planners,managers,and relevant stakeholders in urban planning and design.

关 键 词：气候变化 典型区域 宜居指数 适应策略 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]