2012—2021年山东省道路交通伤害死亡率时空聚集性特征及影响因素分析  

Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics and influencing factors of road traffic injury mortality,Shandong,2012-2021

作　　者：张泽晗 郑文贵 鹿子龙[2,3] 徐明磊 李寅璐 刘海燕 杨特[2,3] 郭晓雷 楚洁 ZHANG Ze-han;ZHENG Wen-gui;LU Zi-long;XU Ming-lei;LI Yin-lu;LIU Hai-yan;YANG Te;GUO Xiao-lei;CHU Jie(School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang,Shandong 261053,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261053 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所 [3]山东大学预防医学研究院 [4]山东省公共卫生临床中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第18期3277-3282,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划(2016GSF201231);泰山学者工程专项(TS201511105)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2012—2021年山东省县域道路交通伤害死亡率的时空聚集特征,为制定精准防制策略提供依据。方法 利用山东省死因登记报告系统数据,计算交通伤害死亡率。分别采用Geoda 1.18和SatScan 9.7进行空间自相关和时空扫描分析以探索时空聚集特点,并运用主成分回归分析探索其影响因素。结果 2012—2021年山东省道路交通伤害死亡率总体呈下降趋势,秋季偏高。各年均存在空间相关性,“高—高”聚集区主要位于鲁中南和鲁西北。时空扫描显示全人群存在4个聚集区,一级聚集区存在于2012年3月至2015年2月,覆盖26个区县,主要位于鲁中南。城乡与总人群相似,均主要位于鲁中南,城市主要聚集区存在于2012年1月至2014年12月,覆盖19个区县;农村主要聚集区存在于2012年1月至2014年12月,覆盖38个区县。主成分回归分析显示,反映经济、交通情况的变量影响较大,其中常住人口数、客货运输量与死亡率呈正相关,其他呈负相关。结论 2012—2021年山东省道路交通伤害死亡率总体呈下降趋势。主要聚集区存在于鲁中南,且农村聚集更明显。提示应根据聚集性特征,关注高风险地区的法律执行、基础设施建设、人口流动等影响因素,因地制宜地采取或调整防控策略。Objective To provide a basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies,the temporal and spatial aggregation characteristics of county road traffic injury mortality were analyzed,Shandong,2012-2021.Methods The traffic injury mortality rate was calculated by using the data from the death registration and reporting system of Shandong.Geoda 1.18 and SatScan 9.7 were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning analysis to explore the characteristics of spatiotemporal aggregation,and principal component regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors.Results Road traffic injury mortality rate in Shandong from 2012 to 2021 showed an overall decreasing trend and was high in the fall.The spatial correlation existed in each year,and the "high-high" aggregation area was mainly located in the central and northwestern parts of Shandong.The spatial scan revealed the existence of four clusters across the entire population.Cluster 1 existed from March 2012 to February 2015,covering 26 districts and counties,primarily located in south-central Shandong.Similar to the total population,urban and rural areas were mainly located in the central and southern part of Shandong,and the main urban agglomeration area existed from January 2012 to December 2014,covering 19 districts and counties;The main rural agglomeration area existed from January 2012 to December 2014,covering 38 districts and counties.Principal component regression analysis showed that the variables reflecting the economic and transportation conditions had a greater impact.Among them,the number of permanent residents and the volume of passenger and freight transportation were positively correlated with the mortality rate,while others were negatively correlated.Conclusion From 2012 to 2021,the mortality rate of road traffic injuries in Shandong showed a decreasing trend.The main agglomeration area exists in the central and southern part of Shandong,and the rural agglomeration is more obvious.According to the characte

关 键 词：道路交通伤害 空间自相关 时空扫描 主成分回归分析 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]