用逐步趋近法确定台州金桂开花日最高气温低温预报指标  

Determining Forecast Index for Low-temperature of the Daily Maximum Temperature Before the Flowering of Golden Osmanthus in Taizhou by Stepwise Approach Method

作　　者：朱寿燕 林万春 王宇翔 陈聪 林健 Zhu Shouyan;Lin Wanchun;Wang Yuxiang;Chen Cong;Lin Jian(Xianju Meteorological Station of Zhejiang Province,Xianju 317300,China;Zhoushan Marine Meteorological Radio Station,Zhoushan 316000,China;Nanyang Meteorological Office of Henan Province,Nanyang 473000,China;Jiaojiang Meteorological Station of Taizhou City,Zhejiang Province,Taizhou 317800,China;Linhai Nursery of Zhejiang Province,Linhai 317000,China)

机构地区：[1]仙居县气象局,浙江仙居317300 [2]舟山海洋气象广播电台,浙江舟山316000 [3]南阳市气象局,河南南阳473000 [4]台州市椒江区气象局,浙江台州317800 [5]临海市苗圃,浙江临海317000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第5期55-61,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室应用技术研究基金(KM202354)。

摘　　要：桂花作为台州市市花,观赏和采摘需要进行开花始期预报。利用2006-2023年台州金桂开花期和日最高气温数据,用逐步趋近法确定金桂开花前低温日指标,按照低温日指标统计低温过程,对第1批次开花前的多个低温过程进行全排列组合,计算第1批次开花始期与各组合低温过程开始日的相关系数,找出相关最显著的低温过程组合确定为有效低温过程,对比有效低温过程和无效低温过程,确定低温过程有效性指标。分析结果表明:(1)台州金桂开花前低温日指标为日最高气温<24.4℃。(2)有效低温过程分为2类:第1类低温过程中连续低温日数≥2天;第2类低温过程中最长连续低温日数=1天,低温过程后1日最高气温≤27.3℃,且前1日最高气温≤28.8℃。(3)无效低温过程分类指标:低温过程中最长连续低温日数=1天,低温过程后1日最高气温≥27.5℃,或者前1日最高气温≥29.9℃。(4)第1个有效低温过程后6-9 d金桂出现第1批次开花始期,金桂各批次开花始期与有效低温过程开始日为极显著正相关。As the city flower of Taizhou City,Osmanthus ornamentation and picking need to be forecasted at the beginning of flowering.Using the data of Golden Osmanthusis flowering and daily maximum temperature of Taizhou City from 2006 to 2023,the index of low temperature day before flowering is determined by stepwise approximation method.According to the index of low temperature day the low-temperature processes are counted.Multiple low-temperature processes prior to the 1st batch flowering are fully arranged and combined,and the correlation coefficients between the beginning data of 1st flowering and the start date of the low-temperature process of each combination are calculated.The most significant combination of the low-temperature processes is identified as the effective low-temperature process.Then,by comparing the effective low-temperature process to the ineffective low-temperature process,the low-temperature process effectiveness index is determined.The results are that:(1)The index of low temperature day before Golden Osmanthus flowering in Taizhou is that the daily maximum temperature is<24.4℃.(2)The effective low-temperature process can be divided into two categories:First,the longest consecutive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is≥2 d;second,the longest consecutive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is 1 d,the daily maximum temperature of the day after the low-temperature process is≤27.3℃ and the daily maximum temperature of the previous day is<28.8℃.(3)The ineffective low-temperature process classification index is that the longest consecutive low temperature duration during the low-temperature process is 1 d,the daily maximum temperature of the day after the low-temperature process is≥27.5℃ or the daily maximum temperature of the previous day is≥29.9℃.(4)The date of the 1st flowering of Golden Osmanthusis is 69 days after the start date of the 1st effective low-temperature process.The flowering start date of each batch of Golden Osmanthus

关 键 词：金桂 开花期预报 逐步趋近法 日最高气温低温日指标 低温过程有效性指标 

分 类 号：P459[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]