川滇地区工程场外道路地震风险评估研究  

STUDY ON SEISMIC RISK OF OFF-SITE ROADS IN SICHUAN AND YUNNAN AREA

作　　者：李垠 魏贵春 陈星宇[2] 张萍 吕筱 刘全[3] LI Yin;WEI Gui-chun;CHEN Xing-yu;ZHANG Ping;LYU Xiao;LIU Quan(Hubei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Early Warning,Hubei Earthquake Agency,Wuhan 430071,Hubei,China;Hainan Earthquake Agency,Haikou 570203,Hainan,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省地震局,地震预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430071 [2]海南省地震局,海南海口570203 [3]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《内陆地震》2024年第3期201-212,共12页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局地震应急青年重点任务(CEA_EDEM-2022)。

摘　　要：水利水电工程场外道路的地震风险判定,对工程项目实施进度起着重要作用。本文中以川滇地区工程场外道路为研究对象,采用模糊集合理论和判断矩阵法,建立地质环境和地震危险性两大因子破坏的综合评估数学模型,分析37个地州市遭受地震后道路破坏情况的可能性。分析表明:川滇地区工程场外道路遭受地震中等破坏的可能性较大,且位于四川的工程场外道路遭受到地震风险破坏的指数高于云南地区的地震风险评估值。The seismic risk assessment of off-site roads in water conservancy and hydropower projects plays an important role in the implementation progress of the project.Road outside the engineering field in Sichuan-Yunnan area is taken as the research object,and the fuzzy set theory and the judgment matrix method are used to establish a comprehensive evaluation mathematical model of the damage of the two major factors of geological environment and seismic risk,and to analyze the possibility of road damage after the earthquake in 37 prefectures and cities.The analysis shows that the road outside the project site in Sichuan-Yunnan area is more likely to suffer from moderate earthquake damage,and the index of earthquake risk damage to the road outside the project site in Sichuan is higher than the earthquake risk assessment value in Yunnan.

关 键 词：地震风险评估 模糊集合 判断矩阵 地震危险性 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]