基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的上海市松江区复合生态系统承载力动态分析  

Analysis of ecological carrying capacity in Songjiang,Shanghai,by establishing the Pressure-State-Response model

作　　者：游广永 刘冬 林乃峰 顾羊羊 张敏霞 杨悦 李晓宇 张文慧 朱莹莹 张顶鹤 邹长新 YOU Guang-yong;LIU Dong;LIN Nai-feng;GU Yang-yang;ZHANG Min-xia;YANG Yue;LI Xiao-yu;ZHANG Wen-hui;ZHU Ying-ying;ZHANG Ding-he;ZOU Chang-xin(Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China,Nanjing 210042,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210042

出　　处：《环境生态学》2024年第9期17-22,32,共7页Environmental Ecology

基　　金：生态环境部南京环境科学研究所长三角生态环境一体化保护研究院“长三角一体化生态环境保护规划评估”项目资助。

摘　　要：本研究利用“压力-状态-响应”概念框架构建了上海市松江区复合生态系统承载力评估模型。综合考虑数据权威性、代表性、连续性,本研究共选取59项指标,利用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)对各项指标进行权重赋值,利用标准化处理、去趋势处理、相关分析等方法分析该区域生态压力、生态弹力、系统响应等方面相对变化趋势及相互关系。结果表明:1)2016—2022年,松江区生态压力呈缓解态势,主要原因是污染物排放量逐年减小、人口增速趋缓、人均资源消费稳定;2)松江区系统状态/生态弹力呈增强态势,主要原因是区域生态资源、环境治理、经济发展状态不断改善和增强;3)松江区复合生态系统承载力持续增强,主要原因是生态弹力不断增强,系统响应表现为环境质量不断改善;4)相关分析表明,系统响应(环境质量)和生态压力呈负相关关系,说明改善区域环境质量当前最有效的方法是减缓生态压力,提高环境基础设施建设可能产生相对滞后的环境效益。This study established a“Pressure-State-Response,PSR”model in Songjiang,Shanghai.The PSR model incorporated 59 indexes and the data were collected from the local Statistical Year Book(2016—2022)and Environmental Quality Reports(2016—2022).The weights of 59 indexes were estimated by using Analytic hierarchy process(AHP).In order to eliminate the influences from the units and ranges of the indexes,each of the 59 indexes was standardized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the stand deviation.The results showed that:1)The ecological pressure was relieved from 2016 to 2022,resulting from the reduction of pollutant discharge and moderate increase of population size.2)The ecological elastic degree was increased from 2016 to 2022 due to the investments on the ecological resources,the pollution treatments and the economic development.3)The ecological carrying capacity of Songjiang was increased and the response component of PSR,namely the environment quality,was increased.4)The negative correlation coefficient between ecological pressure and PSR response suggests the primary role of ecological pressure on determining the environment quality.

关 键 词：层次分析法 复合生态系统承载力 生态压力 生态响应 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]