Sustainability-oriented prioritization of nuclear fuel cycle transitions in China:a holistic MCDM framework under uncertainties  

作　　者：Lei Wang Ru-Xing Gao Hyo On Nam Hong Jang Won Il Ko Chun-Dong Zhang Guo-An Ye Wen-Heng Jing 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Materials-Oriented Chemical Engineering,College of Chemical Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China [2]School of Energy Science and Engineering,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China [3]Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute,989-111 Daedeok-daero,Yuseong-Gu,Daejeon 34057,Republic of Korea [4]China Institute of Atomic Energy,P.O.Box 275-1,Beijing 102413,China

出　　处：《Nuclear Science and Techniques》2024年第9期196-212,共17页核技术（英文）

基　　金：supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Nos.BK20200694,20KJB530002,and 21KJB480014);Jiangsu Specially-Appointed Professors Program;Ministry of Science and ICT under the Nuclear R&D project(NRF-2017M2A8A5015072).

摘　　要：A sustainability-oriented assessment of the nuclear energy system can provide informative and convincing decision-making support for nuclear development strategies in China.In our previous study,four authentic nuclear fuel cycle(NFC)transi-tion scenarios were proposed,featuring different development stages and exhibiting distinct environmental,economic,and technical characteristics.However,because of the multiple and often conflicting criteria embedded therein,determining the top-priority NFC alternative for a sustainability orientation remains challenging.To address this issue,this study proposed a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework comprising fuzzy AHP,PROMETHEE GAIA,and MOORA.Initially,an improved fuzzy AHP weighting model was developed to determine criteria weights under uncertainty and investigate the influence of various weight aggregation and defuzzification approaches.Subsequently,PROMETHEE GAIA was used to address conflicts among the criteria and prioritize alternatives on a visualized k-dimensional GAIA plane.As a result,the alternative for direct recycling PWR spent fuel in fast reactors is considered the most sustainable.Furthermore,a sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the influence of criteria weight variation and validate the screening results.Finally,using MOORA,some significant optimization ideas and valuable insights were provided to support decision-makers in shaping nuclear development strategies.

关 键 词：Nuclear energy systems Nuclear fuel cycle Fuzzy AHP PROMETHEE GAIA 

分 类 号：TL352[核科学技术—核技术及应用]