都江堰灌区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调分析  

Analysis on the Coupling Coordination of Water-energy-food System in Dujiangyan Irrigation District

作　　者：粟洨悦 陈万林 徐志芬 陈菁[1] 岳琼 马隰龙 李金刚 SU Xiaoyue;CHEN Wanlin;XU Zhifen;CHEN Jing;YUE Qiong;MA Xilong;LI Jingang(College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Sichuan Dujiangyan Water Conservancy Development Center,Chengdu 611830,China;Yancheng City Agricultural Resources Development Planning,Design and Evaluation Center,Yancheng 224000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京211100 [2]四川省都江堰水利发展中心,四川成都611830 [3]盐城市农业资源开发规划设计与评审中心,江苏盐城224000

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期32-40,共9页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(52309046);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(B230201053)。

摘　　要：水资源、能源、粮食是人类社会发展的基本资源,三者之间相互关联,开展水-能源-粮食纽带系统的协调发展研究对保障水安全、粮食安全和能源安全具有重要意义。都江堰灌区是四川省主要的商品粮基地,对保障四川省粮食供给至关重要。为此,以都江堰灌区为研究区域,构建水-能源-粮食纽带系统的综合评价指标体系,引入熵权TOPSIS法确定各指标的权重并评价水-能源-粮食纽带系统的综合发展水平,测算出灌区2009—2021年水-能源-粮食纽带系统的耦合协调度,并分析其时间演变特征。随后构建灰色模型GM(1,1)预测水-能源-粮食纽带系统2022—2030年的耦合协调度的发展趋势。研究结果显示:2009—2021年,都江堰灌区水-能源-粮食纽带系统的综合发展水平处于中等水平,呈上升发展趋势;灌区水-能源-粮食纽带系统的耦合度均值为0.961,属高水平耦合,耦合协调度均值为0.663,多数年份处于中度协调阶段;2022—2030年,都江堰灌区水-能源-粮食纽带系统的耦合协调度将上升至0.893,进入高度协调阶段。本研究结果可为都江堰灌区农业可持续发展提供理论指导,并为类似区域的相关分析提供方法参考。Water resources,energy and food are three necessary resources for human society,and they are highly interrelated.Researches on coordinated development of water-energy-food nexus(WEFN)are of great significance for water security,energy security and food security.Dujiangyan Irrigation District,as a main commodity grain base in Sichuan Province,plays an important role in guaranteeing the food supply of Sichuan Province.Thus,Dujiangyan Irrigation District is selected as a study area,a comprehensive evaluation index system of WEFN system is constructed,and TOPSIS method based on entropy weight is used to evaluate the comprehensive development degree of WEFN system.And the coupling coordination degrees of WEFN system from 2009 to 2021 are calculated based on the coupling coordination model,its temporal evolution characteristics is analyzed.Then the gray model GM(1,1)is constructed to forecast the development trend of coupling coordination degree of WEFN system from 2022 to 2030.The results show that the comprehensive development degree of WEFN system in Dujiangyan Irrigation District is at the medium development level with an upward trend;the mean value of the coupling degree of WEFN system is 0.961,WEFN system is at a high level of coupling,meanwhile,the mean value of the coupling coordination degree is 0.663,WEFN system is at the medium coordination stage in most of the years;the coupling coordination degree of WEFN system in the period from 2022 to 2030 will rise to 0.893,WEFN system will enter the high coordination stage.The results can provide theoretical guidance for sustainable agricultural development in Dujiangyan Irrigation District and method reference for similar regions.

关 键 词：水-能源-粮食系统 耦合协调度 灰色预测模型 都江堰灌区 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]