基于高频GPS数据的互通立交匝道货车运行速度预测模型  

Operating speed prediction models of trucks at interchange ramps based on high-frequency GPS data

作　　者：张敏[1] 刘锴 张驰[3] 奚圣宇 聂渝涵 ZHANG Min;LIU Kai;ZHANG Chi;XI Sheng-yu;NIE Yu-han(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;Shenzhen Port Group Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518083,Guangdong,China;School of Highway,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710064 [2]深圳港集团有限公司,广东深圳518083 [3]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2024年第4期228-242,共15页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-YB-391);国家重点研发计划(2020YFC1512005);四川省科技计划项目(2022YFG0048);山西省重点研发计划(202102020101014)。

摘　　要：为明确互通立交匝道路段货车运行速度规律,在分析高速公路主线至匝道末端货车高频GPS实测数据的基础上,构建了互通立交匝道货车运行速度模型;通过分析货车实测速度,确定了匝道货车运行速度特征点,对特征点处速度可能相关的设计要素进行相关性分析,采用全子集回归方法建立了货车在特征点的多个运行速度模型;对比不同模型的赤池信息量准则、Mallows's Cp统计量以及模型检验值,确定自变量参数,得到了互通立交小鼻点、匝道圆曲线曲中点以及匝道与连接线合流鼻处的货车运行速度预测模型,并采用4条匝道数据对模型进行验证。研究结果表明:互通立交小鼻点、匝道圆曲线曲中点及匝道与连接线合流鼻可作为匝道货车运行速度特征点;匝道圆曲线半径、出口渐变率以及分流点运行速度对小鼻点运行速度有显著影响;半径、曲中点至匝道合流鼻距离以及小鼻点运行速度对曲中点运行速度有显著影响;曲中点前半段纵坡、圆曲线曲率以及曲中点运行速度对合流鼻运行速度有显著影响;3个特征点处的运行速度预测模型相关系数分别为0.988、0.993、0.990,预测值与实测值的平均绝对百分比误差均小于10%,满足模型精度要求。To clarify the operating speed rules for trucks at interchange ramps,operating speed models for trucks on interchange ramps were constructed based on the analysis of the measured high-frequency GPS data of trucks from the mainline to the end of the ramp on an expressway.Through the analysis of the measured speeds of trucks,the characteristic points of the truck operating speeds at the ramp were determined,and correlation analysis was carried out for design elements that might be related to the speed at the characteristic points.Multiple operating speed models for trucks at characteristic points were established by using all subsets regression methods.By comparing the Akaike information criterion,mallows's Cp statistic,and model test values of different models,the parameters of the independent variables were determined,and prediction models for truck operating speed at various locations were developed,including the small nose point of interchanges,the midpoint of the ramp curve,and the merging nose of the ramps and the connecting lines.These models were validated by using data from four ramps.Research results show that the small nose point of interchanges,the midpoint of the ramp curve,and the merging nose of the ramps and the connection lines can be considered as the characteristic points of truck operating speed at ramps.The radius of the ramp curve,the gradient rate of the exit,and the operating speed of the diversion point have significant effects on the operating speed at the small nose point.The radius,the distance from the midpoint to the merging nose of the ramp,and the operating speed at the small nose point have significant effects on the operating speed at the midpoint of the ramp curve.The longitudinal slope in the first half of the midpoint,the curvature of the curve,and the operating speed at the midpoint have significant effects on the operating speed at the merging nose.The correlation coefficients of the operating speed prediction models at the three characteristic points are 0.988,0.993,and 0.990

关 键 词：交通工程 交通安全 运行速度预测模型 回归分析 匝道 货车 

分 类 号：U412.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]