近40年鄱阳湖面积变化及其归因分析  

Area change and attribution analysis of Poyang Lake in the past 40 years

作　　者：蒋涛 张旭东 江聪 黄琨 JIANG Tao;ZHANG Xudong;JIANG Cong;HUANG Kun(Jiangxi Bureau of Geology Non-ferrous Geological Brigade,Ganzhou 341000,China;Jiangxi Province Geological and Environmental Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省地质局有色地质大队,江西赣州341000 [2]江西省地质环境调查研究院有限公司,江西南昌330013 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430078

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2024年第5期219-227,共9页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51809243)。

摘　　要：鄱阳湖是中国最大的淡水湖泊,其面积变化对区域生态环境具有重要的影响。基于Landsat遥感影像,提取了1984—2021年鄱阳湖部分日期的水面面积,运用多元回归模型构建了水面面积与湖区水文站实测水位之间的关系,并对连续长序列面积进行了估算,获得了1980—2021年鄱阳湖连续的日尺度面积数据;其次,采用Mann-Kendall检验对面积变化情况进行了详细分析,并基于双累积曲线法定量分离了气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖面积变化的贡献。结果表明:(1)过去40年间,鄱阳湖面积显著减少,面积变化的突变点为2003年,突变点前的基准期(1980—2002年)的多年平均面积为2585.4 km^(2),突变点后的变化期(2003—2021年)的多年平均面积为2198.7 km^(2);相比基准期,变化期的面积减少了386.7 km^(2),减少了约15.0%;(2)不同季节鄱阳湖面积的减少程度不同,其中秋季面积减少得最多,减少了约22.8%,其次是冬季、春季和夏季的面积,分别减少了约13.6%、13.1%和11.8%;(3)气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖面积减少的贡献分别为24.7%和75.3%,人类活动是造成鄱阳湖面积减少的主要原因。Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China,and changes in its area have a significant impact on the regional ecological environment.In this study,we extracted the water surface area of Poyang Lake on some dates from 1984 to 2021 based on Landsat remote sensing images,and then used the multiple regression model to establish the relationship between the surface area and the measured water level of the hydrological station in the lake,estimated the consecutive long-series area,and obtained daily-scale area data of Poyang Lake for the period of 1980—2021.Secondly,we analyzed the change in surface area in detail using the MannKendall test and quantitatively separated the contributions of climate change and human activities to the change in the surface area of Poyang Lake based on the double cumulative curve method.The study results are as follows:(1)During the past 40 years,the area of Poyang Lake decreased significantly,with a mutation point in 2003.The average area of the base period(1980—2002)before the mutation point is 2585.4 km^(2),and the average area of the change period(2003—2021)after the mutation point is 2198.7 km^(2).Compared with the base period,the area of the change period decreases by 386.7 km^(2),which is about 15.0%.(2)The reduction of the surface area of Poyang Lake in different seasons is different,among which the surface area in autumn is reduced the most,which is reduced by about 22.8%,followed by the areas in winter,spring,and summer,which are reduced by about 13.6%,13.1%and 11.8%,respectively.(3)The contributions of climate change and human activities to the reduction of the area of Poyang Lake is 24.7%and 75.3%respectively,and human activities are the main reason for the reduction of the area of Poyang Lake.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖 面积估算 面积变化 归因分析 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]