基于睿图中尺度模式的沈阳市防晒指数精细化预报  

Refined Prediction of Sun Protection Index in Shenyang Based on Ryutu Mesoscale Model

作　　者：侯亚红[1] 息涛[1] 明惠青[1] 赵淼[1] Hou Yahong;Xi Tao;Ming Huiqing;Zhao Miao(Liaoning Meteorological Service Center,Liaoning Shenyang 110166)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2024年第3期21-25,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：辽宁省地方标准项目(2022360);辽宁省气象局科研基金项目(202218)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用睿图中尺度模式输出的格点气象要素和与辐射相关的物理量逐小时数据,结合沈阳总辐射观测实况资料,利用多元回归方法,建立防晒指数精细化预报模型。结果表明:(1)睿图东北模式输出产品中,气象因子和辐射因子对比,辐射因子与太阳总辐射的相关性更好。其中地表高度向下的短波辐射通量和地面热通量与太阳总辐射的相关性最显著。(2)以综合因子建模方式,建立分季节的太阳总辐射预报方程。方程诊断分析表明,春季和冬季预报模型拟合度最高,稳定性最强。全年预报方程模型拟合度较高,夏、秋两季拟合度略差。(3)预报检验结果显示:春季防晒指数等级预测正确的比例为83.7%,夏季为87.4%,秋季为88%,冬季为96.9%。预测结果较为理想,可在防晒指数预报业务中使用。Based on the gridded meteorological elements and radiation-related physical quantities hourly data of Ryutu mesoscale model,combined with the total radiation observation data of Shenyang,a refined prediction model for sun protection index was established using multiple regression method.The results indicated that:(1)In the output products of Ryutu Northeast model,the correlations between radiation factors and total solar radiation were better than those between meteorological factors and total solar radiation,especially the one between downward short-wave radiation flux on the surface and total solar radiation,as well as the one between surface heat flux and total solar radiation.(2)The seasonal prediction equation of total solar radiation was established using a comprehensive factor modeling approach.The equation diagnosis analysis showed that the spring and winter forecast models had the highest fitting degree and the strongest stability.The fitting degree of the annual forecast equation model was high,and that of summer and autumn models was slightly poor.(3)The prediction accuracy of sun protection index level in spring,summer,autumn and winter was 83.7%,87.4%,88%and 96.9%respectively.The prediction results were good,which meant this model could be applied to forecasting sun protection index.

关 键 词：格点产品 防晒指数 精细化预报 预报方程 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]