怀柔水库“23·7”极端暴雨入库洪水过程线平滑处理研究  

Study on the inflow flood hydrograph smooth processing of"23.7"extreme rainstorm in Huairou Reservoir

作　　者：郭雅婧 周宁 范强 GUO Yajing;ZHOU Ning;FAN Qianga(Beijing Jingmi Water Diversion Project Management Office,Beijing 101400,China;Beijing Hydrology Center,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市京密引水管理处,北京101400 [2]北京市水文总站,北京100089

出　　处：《北京水务》2024年第4期35-39,共5页Beijing Water

摘　　要：怀柔水库入库水文站至坝址区间汇水面积约占水库流域面积的7%,采用入库水文站实测流量作为入库洪水过程线无法真实反映水库的入库过程。通过分析实测库水位变化过程和水库出库过程,发现出入库数据之间存在明显的不协调。以怀柔水库建库以来最大场次降雨“23·7”暴雨为研究对象,根据实测库水位变化和出库过程,利用水量平衡方程反推入库流量,得到怀柔水库“23·7”极端暴雨入库洪水过程线。同时,针对反推入库洪水过程线存在的“锯齿”问题,综合优化滑动平均法和指数平滑法对过程线进行平滑处理,洪量误差为-0.05%,洪峰误差为-1.50%,减小了过程线“锯齿”带来的计算误差,最终得到的怀柔水库入库过程线平滑自然、符合实际,经检验计算精度符合要求。研究成果可以用于怀柔水库洪水预报、防洪调度与管理,也为其他水库规划设计、运行调度提供参考。The catchment area from the inflow hydrological station to the dam site of the Huairou Reservoir accounts for approximately 7%of the reservoir's watershed area.Therefore,the method cannot accurately reflect the reservoir's inflow process through using the measured inflow from the hydrological station as the inflow hydrograph.There was a significant discrepancy between the inflow and outflow data by analyzing the observed reservoir water level changes and the measured outflow process.Focusing on the largest rainfall event since the establishment of Huairou Reservoir,the"23.7"rainstorm,the inflow hydrograph of this extreme event was derived using the water balance equation based on the observed reservoir water level changes and outflow process.To address the"sawtooth"issue in the derived inflow hydrograph,a combination of the moving average method and the exponential smoothing method was used to smooth the process.The volume error was-0.05%,and the peak flow error was-1.50%,which reduced the calculation error caused by the"sawtooth"effect.The final inflow hydrograph of Huairou Reservoir is smooth and natural,which accurately reflected the actual inflow process and meets the required calculation accuracy upon verification.The research results can be used for future flood forecasting,flood control scheduling,and management of Huairou Reservoir.Additionally,this study provide a reference for the planning,design,and operational scheduling of other reservoirs.

关 键 词：平滑算法 入库洪水过程线 “23·7”极端暴雨 怀柔水库 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]