驻马店灾害性大风特征及其影响系统分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Influence System of Severe Wind in Zhumadian

作　　者：徐凤英 XU Fengying(Zhumadian Meteorological Bureau,Zhumadian 463000,China)

机构地区：[1]驻马店市气象局,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《河南科技》2024年第18期101-104,共4页Henan Science and Technology

基　　金：淮河上游分类强对流天气特征分析及预报预警指标研究(KF202451)。

摘　　要：【目的】提高驻马店本地灾害性大风预报准确率及预警的提前量。【方法】利用2015—2022年驻马店市国家站的观测数据,统计分析驻马店灾害性大风时间变化特征及其与EC模式预报的误差偏差规律。【结果】驻马店灾害性大风呈现夏季多发且预报偏差较大的特征,占全年61%,以对流性大风为主。【结论】通过诊断分析夏半年灾害性大风天气的影响系统、中尺度特征,结合天气学原理的知识,归纳总结出预报偏差大的两个典型的灾害性大风天气概念模型,为大风预报提供参考。[Purposes]This paper aims to improve the forecast accuracy of local disaster gale and advance warning of Zhumadian.[Methods]Using the observation data of Zhumadian National Station from 2015 to 2022,the time variation characteristics of disaster gale and the error deviation law between Zhuma⁃dian and EC model forecast were statistically analyzed.[Findings]Severe wind in Zhumadian showed the characteristics of frequent occurrence in summer and large forecast deviation,accounting for 61%of the whole year,mainly convective gale.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the influence system and mesoscale characteristics of severe wind weather in summer half year and combined with the knowledge of synoptic principles,two typical conceptual models of disaster gale weather with large forecast devia⁃tion were summarized,which provide reference for the gale forecast.

关 键 词：驻马店 灾害性大风特征 预报偏差 影响系统 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]