极端气候变化对黄河源区生态系统的影响  

Impact of Extreme Climate Change on Ecosystem of the Yellow River Source Area

作　　者：刘宜浩 丁圆圆 赵健赟 李国荣[1] 赵利江 李启龙 LIU Yi-hao;DING Yuan-yuan;ZHAO Jian-yun;LI Guo-rong;ZHAO Li-jiang;LI Qi-long(Department of Geological Engineering,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;Qinghai Basic Surveying and Mapping Institute,Xining 810001,China;Qinghai Water Resources and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Xining 810000,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学地质工程学院,西宁810016 [2]青海省基础测绘院,西宁810001 [3]青海省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,西宁810000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第26期11167-11179,共13页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42161068)。

摘　　要：利用黄河源区1982—2020年逐日气温、降水数据和多源遥感数据分别构建26个极端气候指标以及生态环境质量综合评估体系,分析极端气候、生态环境质量的时空分布与变化特征,揭示极端气候变化对生态环境的影响机制。结果表明:研究区极端气温、降雨在波动上升,且均在西北—东南方向上呈现阶梯式变化规律;降水量由西北至东南逐渐增加,空间变化率在数值上多呈北高南低;冷(暖)夜的年际线性变化率分别大于冷(暖)昼且其空间变化趋势具有明显的区域差异性并且通过p<0.05的显著性检验;多年生态环境质量均值在0.51~0.73波动,从多年来的生态环境质量空间变化趋势上看,恶化与改善并存,其中北部的贵南、同德及玛多县一带退化较为明显,东南部多数地区有改善趋势;因子探测结果表明各极端气候驱动因子均通过了p=0.01显著性检验,其中水分对生态环境质量的空间分布具有更重要的主导作用,且因子之间的交互作用会增强对生态环境的影响作用。Daily temperature,precipitation data and multi-source remote sensing data at the Yellow River Source Area from 1982 to 2020 were used to establish 26 extreme climate indicators and comprehensive assessment system of ecological environment quality,so as to analyze spatial and temporal distribution and change characteristics of extreme climate and ecological environment quality and show the influence system of extreme climate change on the ecological environment.The results show that extreme temperatures and rainfall fluctuate at the research area and show step change from northwest to southeast.The precipitation increase gradually from northwest to southeast.The spatial change rate is higher in the north and lower in the south,the interannual variability at cold(warm) night is greater than the interannual variability at cold(warm) day,the spatial change trend has significant regional differences and the spatial change trend pass the significance test of P<0.05.The average value of ecological and environmental quality over the years is between 0.51 and 0.73.Based on space variation trend of the ecological and environmental quality over the years,degradation and improvement co-exist,degradation in Guinan,Tongde and Maduo counties in the north is more obvious,and there is an improvement trend in most parts of the southeast.Factor detection result show that each extreme climate driving factor pass the p=0.01 significance test,water plays a more important leading role in the spatial distribution of ecological environmental quality and interaction among factors increase the impact on the ecological environment.

关 键 词：极端气候指标 生态环境质量评价 地理探测器 影响机制 

分 类 号：S429[农业科学—植物保护]