从“脱钩”到“去风险”:美国对华经贸科技政策的变迁  

From“Decoupling”to“De-risking”:The Evolution of U.S.Trade and Technology Policy Toward China

作　　者：张哲[1] ZHANG Zhe

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2024年第3期43-65,130,131,共25页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：拜登政府就职以来,延续并强化了特朗普政府的对华政策,但是在经贸和科技政策议题上,美国从强调“脱钩”转向重视“去风险”。美国认为,经贸与科技政策隐含的安全风险日益显性化:经济全球化催生的过长供应链容易受到地缘形势和突发事件的冲击;全球化造就复杂的相互依赖关系,进而产生脆弱性风险;军民两用技术随着全球化扩散有可能损害美国安全利益。在中美战略竞争背景下,美国将这三种风险与中国紧密挂钩,对华推行“去风险”政策,强调投资自身以提高美国的工业和创新能力、推动供应链多元化以提升其韧性、加强对先进技术转移的管制与限制。美国对华“去风险”政策仍在探索和调适的进程中,其“去风险”政策与“脱钩”有所不同,旨在消除中美相互依赖关系所带来的风险的同时保留双方有益的合作,但同“脱钩”一样难掩其霸权焦虑的本质。未来,美国的“风险”认知和应对策略仍将不断调整和发展,这也意味着中美战略博弈的过程将是长期和复杂的。Since taking office,the Biden administration has continued and intensified the Trump administrations China policy,while shifting its focus from“decoupling”to“de-risking”in the areas of trade and technology policy.The U.S.believes that the security risks embedded in trade and technology policies have become increasingly apparent:the extended global supply chains spawned by economic globalization are easily affected by geopolitical changes and unexpected events;the complex interdependence generated by globalization leads to heightened vulnerability risks;and the global proliferation of dual-use technologies has the potential to undermine U.S.security interests.In the context of U.S.-China strategic competition,the U.S.government has closely linked these risks to China,adopting a“de-risking”strategy that emphasizes domestic investment to enhance U.S.industrial and innovation capabilities,diversifying supply chains to bolster its own resilience,and strengthening controls and restrictions on the transfer of advanced technologies.The U.S.“de-risking”policy toward China remains a work in progress,with adjustments and refinements ongoing.Unlike“decoupling”,the“de-risking”policy aims to mitigate the risks associated with China-U.S.interdependence while preserving beneficial cooperation between the two nations.Nevertheless,much like“decoupling”,it reveals an underlying anxiety over maintaining U.S.hegemony.Looking ahead,the U.S.s“risk”perception and risk-managing strategies will continue to shift and evolve,suggesting that the strategic competition between the U.S.and China will remain long and complex.

关 键 词：“脱钩断链” “去风险” 战略竞争 美国对华政策 中美关系 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F171.2