上海市暴雨特征变化趋势分析  

An evaluation on changes of rainstorm characteristics in Shanghai Municipality

作　　者：易文林 顾圣华 俞汇 丁国川 Yi Wenlin;Gu Shenghua;Yu Hui;Ding Guochuan

机构地区：[1]上海市水文总站,上海200232 [2]上海市水务局,上海200050 [3]上海市水务规划设计研究院,上海200000

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第18期32-37,共6页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100)。

摘　　要：受城市化进程加快和全球气候变化综合影响,我国城市降水总量和强度增加,极端暴雨发生频率呈上升趋势,对保障城市防洪安全带来严峻挑战。为进一步延长洪水预见期、提高城市对洪涝灾害的应对能力,根据上海全市范围内32个代表雨量站的历史实测数据,采用小波分析法,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,分析暴雨特征样本时间序列,综合分析上海市历史暴雨场次、强度、历时和笼罩面积等特征变化,发现其均具有一定周期性,结果表明:在暴雨场次上,2023—2026年仍位于增多阶段,2027年后逐步进入减少阶段,2030年左右位于波谷处,暴雨场次相对较少;在暴雨强度上,根据拟合趋势线预测,未来5年仍处于增长期,至2027年最大3 h和6 h滑动均值均增多约20 mm;在暴雨历时上,2023—2026年仍位于增长阶段,其中2024年左右位于波峰处,降雨历时相对较长;在暴雨笼罩面积上,2023—2024年仍位于增大阶段,2025年后进入缩小阶段,2029年左右位于缩小的波谷处,笼罩面积相对较小。Affected by acceleration of urbanization and overall impact of global climate change,the total amount and intensity of precipitation in cities of China have increased.High frequency of extreme rainstorm poses serious challenges to the safety of cities for flood control.In order to further extend the flood forecast period and enhance capabilities to cope with flood disasters,the time series of rainstorm characteristic samples was analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann Kendall trend test methods,according to the historical data of 32 representative rain gauging stations in Shanghai.The characteristics of rainstorm frequency,intensity,duration and shrouded area in the history shows that they are all periodic.The results indicate that the number of rainstorm is at increase stage from 2023 to 2026,and shall gradually be decreased after 2027.The number of rainstorm shall be at the trough around 2030,with relatively less events.In terms of rainstorm intensity,according to the prediction of fitting trend line,it will have a growth period in the next five years,and the maximum 3h and 6h sliding average will increase by about 20 mm until 2027.In terms of the duration of rainstorm,it is at growth period from 2023 to 2026 and will be at the peak around 2024,with a relatively long rainfall duration.In terms of rainstorm coverage area,it is at increase stage from 2023 to 2024,and will enter into shrinking stage after 2025.Around 2029,it will be at the shrinking trough,and the coverage area is relatively small.

关 键 词：上海市 暴雨特征 周期变化 趋势分析 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]