战后以来东北亚海权与陆权地缘政治秩序的重构  

Post-war Reconfiguration of the Geopolitical Order:Northeast Asia on Land and in the Sea

作　　者：李敦球 谌贝贝 Li Dunqiu;Chen Beibei

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学区域国别研究院,山东曲阜273165 [2]韩国延世大学,韩国首尔03722

出　　处：《国际论坛》2024年第5期101-120,158,159,共22页International Forum

摘　　要：经过战后以来的长期演变,尤其是自冷战终结以来,东北亚海权与陆权地缘秩序的中心已从大陆转向海洋,海权的重要性进一步凸显。这主要表现为:区域国家对海洋的战略性认识提升,纷纷制定并推进海洋发展战略;岛屿与海洋权益争端突出且频发;大国竞争背景下中美海洋战略竞争加剧。美国作为亚太地区的海洋霸主直接介入地区海洋争端,维护自身在东北亚的霸权。美国军事战略基调由竞争转向威慑,确立了发展和运用军事力量的“一体化威慑”大战略。东北亚地区海上安全风险正在升级,地缘热点和海上风险点已渐成互联迸发趋势,朝鲜半岛问题与东海、台海、南海即“三海一半岛”风险已现联动的苗头。东北亚地区的安全热点问题往往具有矛盾突出、危险性大、外溢影响明显等特点,对于整个地区安全态势具有“破窗”效应。当前东北亚的地缘风险恐怕会对中国的主权安全或国家利益构成非常严峻的挑战。中国需要及时制定科学完善的东北亚海洋安全大战略,加强海上软硬实力的现代化建设,积极探索构建东北亚海洋安全秩序的新路径,推动共建东北亚海洋命运共同体。Since the end of WWII and especially after the Cold War,there has been a clear shift from the continent to the oceans in the geopolitical order Northeast Asia,highlighting the increased importance of maritime power.This is mainly manifested in the following aspects:the adoption and promotion of maritime development strategies by regional countries resulting from their improved appreciation of the sea,frequent and prominent disputes over islands and maritime rights,and the intensifying China-US maritime strategic competition in the context of great power competition.As the maritime hegemony in the Asia-Pacific,the US is directly involved in regional maritime disputes to maintain its dominance in Northeast Asia.As the main thrust of US military strategy changes from competition to deterrence,the US has finally settled on a grand strategy of“integrated deterrence”that emphasizes the development and application of military forces.At present,maritime security risks in Northeast Asia are mounting because geopolitical flashpoints and maritime risks have become increasingly intertwined.In particular,the Korean Peninsula issue is showing signs of increasing interconnection with problems in the East China Sea,the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.The security flashpoints in Northeast Asia often have a“broken window”effect on the whole regional security landscape since these flashpoints are often characterized by prominent contradictions,greater risks,and obvious spillover effects.The current geopolitical risks in Northeast Asia may pose very severe challenges to China’s sovereignty and national interests.In response,China needs to formulate in a timely manner a scientific and sound grand strategy for maritime security for Northeast Asia,enhance it soft and hard power in the maritime domain,actively explore a new path to reshape the maritime security order in Northeast Asia,and promote the joint construction of a Northeast Asian maritime community with a shared future.

关 键 词：东北亚 海权 陆权 美国介入 地缘秩序 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]