2024年度国内小麦市场形势展望  

Prospect of Domestic Wheat Market in 2024

作　　者：焦善伟 JIAO Shanwei(Henan Grain Trading Logistics Market Co.,Ltd.Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省粮食交易物流市场有限公司,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《种业导刊》2024年第4期3-6,共4页Journal of Seed Industry Guide

摘　　要：进入2024年,国内小麦市场行情走势偏弱,供应充足、需求疲软,市场购销较为平淡,特别是面粉加工企业开机水平偏低,终端市场对小麦价格的拉动作用乏力。新粮收获上市后,因产量和品质均好于2023年,市场供给充裕,小麦价格低开稳走,购销围绕政策性收购平稳展开。综合预计后期在小麦市场供需宽松格局下,国内小麦价格出现单边大幅涨跌的概率均不大,随着收储任务的完成,市场购销将围绕面粉需求产生博弈,夏粮收购进程将比往年延长,谨慎策略或将成为市场的常态。Entering 2024,the domestic wheat market trend was weak,supply was sufficient,demand was weak,and market purchases and sales were relatively flat.Especially for flour processing enterprises,the level of operation was relatively low,resulting in the limited driving effect of terminal market consumption on wheat prices.After the new grain harvest was launched,due to better yield and quality than the previous year,the market supply was abundant,and wheat prices opened steadily at a low price.The purchase and sale were carried out smoothly around policy based acquisitions.Overall,it is expected that under the loose supply and demand pattern in the wheat market in the later stage,the probability of a significant unilateral rise or fall in domestic wheat prices will not be high.With the completion of the acquisition task of state-owned enterprises,market purchases and sales will revolve around flour demand,and the summer grain acquisition process will be extended compared to previous years.Cautious strategies may become the norm in the market.

关 键 词：小麦 生产 消费 政策 价格 国际市场 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学]