基于STPA和FTPN的海上自主水面船舶航行实时风险评估  

Real-time risk assessment for maritime autonomous surface ships based on STPA and FTPN

作　　者：席永涛[1,2] 刘鹏杰 胡甚平 韩冰[3] XI Yongtao;LIU Pengjie;HU Shenping;HAN Bing(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海201306 [3]上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司,上海200135

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第8期18-26,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：水路交通控制全国重点实验室开放课题基金资助(W24CG000042)。

摘　　要：为实时监测海上自主水面船舶(MASS)航行过程风险,基于系统理论事故模型与过程(STAMP)建立MASS的安全控制结构,采用系统理论过程分析法(STPA)确定损失/事故和系统级危险,识别不安全控制行为并分析损失场景,构建系统状态转化过程模型;采用模糊时间Petri网(FTPN)建模,以设定的MASS航行场景得到相关模糊时间函数并推算FTPN的情态演进;引入新的风险水平表达式并通过系统实时损失/事故二维路径图来可视化系统的实时风险水平和系统不安全状态的转化路径。结果表明:设定的航行场景在当前时刻下,缺少安全水深输入、未更新避碰路径、航向航速不安全、搁浅是风险最高的系统不安全状态,并对应4条风险最高的转化路径;STPA驱动下的FTPN过程模型能全面评估MASS航行的实时风险水平,以系统实时损失/事故二维路径图作为可视化界面,用于监管MASS航行中不安全系统状态并描述其转化路径。In order to monitor the risk during the navigation of MASS,the safety control structure of MASS was constructed based on System-theoretic Accident Model and Process(STAMP).STPA was used to define the losses/accidents and system-level hazards,identify unsafe control actions,analyze loss scenarios,and construct an accident model for system state transition.FTPN was used to model the process model,and a given MASS navigation situation was used to obtain the relevant fuzzy time functions and to project the situational evolution of FTPN.A new risk level expression was introduced,and a two-dimensional path diagram of system loss/accident was used to visualize the real-time system risk level and system unsafe states transition paths.The results show that at the current moment of the set navigation situation,no safe water depth input,no updated collision avoidance path,unsafe heading and speed,and grounding are the highest risk system unsafe states and correspond to the four highest risk transition paths.The study shows that the FTPN process model driven by STPA can comprehensively assess the real-time risk level of MASS navigation.Visualize real-time risk with a two-dimensional path diagram of real-time losses/accidents of the system,which can monitor the unsafe system states during MASS navigation and describe their transition paths.

关 键 词：系统理论过程分析(STPA) 模糊时间Petri网(FTPN) 海上自主水面船舶(MASS) 实时风险评估 转化路径 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]