基于社会力模型的不规则通道人群拥堵形成过程与要素研究——以梨泰院踩踏事故为例  

Study on Formation Process and Element for Crowd Congestion in Irregular Passages Based on Social Force Model Taking Itaewon Stampede Accident as a Case

作　　者：王京波 王嘉悦 WANG Jingbo;WANG Jiayue(Public Security Academy,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学治安学院,北京100038

出　　处：《安全》2024年第9期1-10,共10页Safety & Security

基　　金：中国人民公安大学治安学双一流专项(2023SYL01);国家自然科学基金项目(72004226)。

摘　　要：为探究不规则通道拥堵的形成过程及关键要素,通过分析梨泰院踩踏事故所在不规则通道发生拥堵的主要因素,依据事发通道的地理数据和行人数据,利用Anylogic软件建立基于社会力模型的梨泰院事故仿真场景;针对通道的通行能力、不规则形态以及行人摔倒对拥堵情况的影响,设计实验研究不规则通道在面对不同行人流量时发生拥堵的时间和位置。结果表明:通道的通行能力与通道内拥堵的饱和时间及人群的排队长度直接关联;通道的不规则形态会对拥堵位置产生影响并在不同行人流量下影响拥堵的饱和时间;在大行人流量下的人员摔倒事件使人群排队在通道内逐渐累积,增加发生踩踏事件的风险。并据此划分了不同的行人流量预警区间,提出针对各区间的合理应对时间与防范策略,以降低未来类似事件的发生概率。In order to explore the formation process and key factors for crowd congestion in irregular passages,in this paper,through analyzing the main factors leading to the congestion in the irregular passage where the Itaewon stampede occurred,and according to the geographic and pedestrian data of the site,the AnyLogic software was used to establish a simulation scenario for the Itaewon incident based on the social force model.Experiments were designed to study the impact of the passage capacity,irregular shapes,and pedestrian falls on the congestion,focusing on the time and location of the congestion under different pedestrian flow volumes.The results show that the passage capacity is directly related to the saturation time of the congestion and the queue length of the crowd;the irregular shape of the passage affects the location of the congestion and influences the saturation time under different pedestrian flow volumes;pedestrian falls in high-volume conditions cause crowd queues to gradually accumulate within the passage,increasing the risk of stampede incidents.Accordingly,different pedestrian flow warning intervals were identified,and reasonable response times and preventive strategies for each interval were proposed to reduce the likelihood of similar incidents in the future.

关 键 词：人群拥堵 关键要素 社会力模型 不规则通道 踩踏事故预防 

分 类 号：X956[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU229[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]