基于雷达回波与LSTM的输电线路强对流灾害风险预警方法  

Risk early warning method of severe convective disasters for transmission lines based on radar echo and LSTM

作　　者：寇晓适 王德琳 柯佳颖 王建[2] 王超 刘善峰 KOU Xiaoshi;WANG Delin;KE Jiaying;WANG Jian;WANG Chao;LIU Shanfeng(State Grid Henan Electric Power Company Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Sate Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology(Chongqing University),Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南郑州450052 [2]输变电装备技术全国重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆400044

出　　处：《电力工程技术》2024年第5期189-198,共10页Electric Power Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52277079)。

摘　　要：强对流天气下输电线路易发生雷击、风偏、雨闪等故障,威胁电网安全运行。为了克服现有短临预报尚不能完全满足输电线路风险预警对精细化气象预报的需求问题,文中利用气象雷达拼图、风速和降雨量同化数据以及电网雷电定位数据,构建了基于深度学习的强对流风雨雷短临预报模型,用于开展输电线路风险预警。首先,将气象雷达拼图及其时序外推数据作为输入,将同化后的风速、降雨和落雷密度、雷电流强度作为输出,构建基于长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络的强对流气象要素预报模型。然后,结合模型输出的风雨雷预报结果,评估输电走廊网格内风偏、雷击和断线倒塔故障风险大小,综合计算输电线路的故障概率,进行风险预警。最后,展示了所提模型对2023年9月某省的强对流天气过程进行成功预警的案例,表明了所提方法能够提高强对流天气下输电线路风险预警能力。In severe convective weather,transmission lines are prone to lightning strikes,wind swings,rain flashes and other faults that threaten the safe operation of the power grids.To overcome the problem that the existing nowcasting cannot fully meet the demand for refined weather forecasts for transmission line risk warning,a deep-learning-based nowcasting model of severe convective is constructed in this paper.The model is built by using meteorological radar echo image,assimilated data of wind speed and rainfall,lightning location data of the power grid and it is used to carry out early warning of transmission line risks.First,an long short-term memory(LSTM)network-based forecasting model of severe convective meteorological elements is constructed by taking the meteorological radar echo and its time-series extrapolation data as inputs,and assimilated data of wind speed and rainfall,lightning density,lightning current intensity as outputs.Then,combined with the wind,rain,and lightning forecast output from the model,the risk of wind swing,lightning strike,and tower collapse in the transmission corridor grid is evaluated.The fault probability of the transmission line is calculated in a comprehensive way for risk early warning.Finally,a case of successful early warning of severe convective weather processes in a province in September 2023 is demonstrated,which demonstrates the ability of the proposed method to improve the risk early warning capability of transmission lines under severe convective weather.

关 键 词：输电线路 强对流灾害 风险预警 雷达回波 长短期记忆(LSTM)网络 风偏放电 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]