财政科技支出、区域创新与经济增长——来自西北五省的经验证据  

Fiscal Technology Spending,Regional Innovation,and Economic Growth:Empirical Evidence from Five Northwestern Provinces

作　　者：苏来曼[1] 王梦瑶 Su Laiman;Wang Mengyao(School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《西部经济管理论坛》2024年第5期68-81,共14页West Forum on Economy and Management

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社科基金专项项目“创新驱动经济高质量发展的机制和路径研究”(22VZX021)

摘　　要：区域创新是推动区域经济增长的核心力量。文章基于西北五省2000-2021年省级面板数据,构建中介效应模型、格兰杰因果检验和门槛回归模型分析财政科技支出对区域创新和经济增长的影响机制和路径,基于PVAR模型探究不同因素与经济增长之间的长期动态均衡关系。研究发现:财政科技支出通过区域创新促进了经济增长;人力资本结构门槛的存在,使西北地区财政科技支出在目前阶段未有效推动区域创新;财政科技支出、区域创新、人力资本与经济增长之间存在动态相互影响关系,其中,财政科技支出和区域创新对经济增长具有长期稳定的正向作用,而人力资本结构对经济增长的短期抑制作用明显;推动西北五省经济增长的首要因素是经济增长自身的驱动效应,其次是区域创新和财政科技支出,当前的人力资本结构对区域经济增长的驱动作用不显著。Regional innovation is the core force driving regional economic growth.Based on panel data from five provinces in northwest China from 2000 to 2021,this article constructs an intermediary effect model,Granger causality test,and threshold regression model to study the effect mechanism and path of fiscal technology expenditure on regional innovation and economic growth.Then it builds up a PVAR model to explore the long-term dynamic equilibrium relation-ship between different factors and economic growth.The research findings go as below:The fiscal technology expenditure promotes economic growth through regional innovation;Due to the existence of the threshold for human capital structure,the fiscal technology expenditure in the northwest region cannot effectively promote regional innovation at the current stage;There is a dynamic interaction mechanism between fiscal technology expenditure,regional innovation,human capit-al,and economic growth.Fiscal technology expenditure and regional innovation have a long-term stable positive effect on economic growth,while human capital structure has a significant short-term inhibitory effect on economic growth;the main factor of economic growth in the five provinces of northwest China comes from the effect of economic growth itself,followed by regional innovation and fiscal technology expenditure,the driving effect of human capital structure on region-al economic growth is not significant.

关 键 词：人力资本 经济增长 财政科技支出 区域创新 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学] F124