天然气管道定量风险评价结果敏感性分析  

Sensitivity Analysis of Quantitative Risk Assessment Results for Natural Gas Pipelines

作　　者：胡贵斌 陈帝文 陈啟斌 王岐振 白建帮 梁择文 HU Guibin;CHEN Diwen;CHEN Qibin;WANG Qizhen;BAI Jianbang;LIANG Zewen(Guangdong Pipe Network Co.,Ltd.,PipeChina;Tianjin Zhongyou Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团广东省管网有限公司,广州市510710 [2]天津中油能源科技股份有限公司

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2024年第9期63-69,共7页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

摘　　要：风险评价可以识别出对管道有危害的因素,对事故发生的可能性和后果大小进行评价,计算风险大小,是管道完整性管理的重要环节。随着天然气管道的不断铺设和城镇建设的不断进行,潜在的风险因素也逐渐增加。运用定量评价方法,对广东省管网某段天然气管道进行了定量风险评价,并模拟分析了压力、管径、周边人口和失效频率等影响因素的变化对风险结果的敏感性。结果表明:对个人风险敏感性的排序为失效概率>运行压力>管径>周边人口;对在社会风险中可能造成的死亡人数在1~10的范围内,敏感性的排序为失效概率>运行压力>周边人口>管径;对在社会风险中可能造成的死亡人数在10~1000的范围内,敏感性的排序为失效概率>周边人口>运行压力>管径。对敏感性的分析为管道企业制定风险管控措施提供了依据。Risk assessment can identify the factors that are harmful to the pipeline,evaluate the possibility and consequences of the accident,and calculate the risk size,which is an important part of pipeline integrity management.With the continuous laying of natural gas pipelines and the continuous progress of urban construction,potential risk factors are gradually increasing.The quantitative risk assessment of a certain section of natural gas pipeline in Guangdong Province is carried out by using the quantitative evaluation method,and the sensitivity of the influence factors such as pressure,pipe diameter,surrounding population,and failure frequency to the risk results is simulated and analyzed.The results show that the order of individual risk sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>pipe diameter>surrounding population.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 1-10,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>operating pressure>surrounding population>pipe diameter.For social risks,if the number of deaths that may be caused is in the range of 10-1000,the order of sensitivity is failure probability>surrounding population>operating pressure>pipe diameter.The analysis of sensitivity provides a basis for pipeline enterprises to formulate risk management and control measures.

关 键 词：管道 风险 定量风险评价 敏感性分析 风险管控 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]