基于STIRPAT改进模型的油气开采业碳排放研究  

Research on Carbon Emissions in Oil and Gas Extraction Industry Based on Improved STIRPAT Model

作　　者：高翔 周淑慧[2] GAO Xiang;ZHOU Shuhui(Beijing Oil&Gas Transmission Sub-company of Beijing Pipeline Co.,Ltd.,PipeChina;PetroChina Planning&Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团北京管道有限公司北京输油气分公司,北京市102401 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2024年第9期85-92,99,共9页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

摘　　要：能源安全及双碳战略下,我国坚定不移推进稳油增气,原油产量力争保持在2×10^(8)t/a,天然气产量逐步增加至3000×10^(8)m^(3)/a左右。2020年我国油气开采业能源利用CO_(2)排放量已达8758×10^(4)t,“双碳”目标约束下面临较大的减排压力。基于2010—2020年我国油气开采业相关历史数据,充分考虑油气开采业特点,引入行业能源消费、固定资产投入、油气产出相关8个指标参数,构建改进型STIRPAT模型并结合岭回归分析方法,分析各影响因素与碳排放量的关系。能源消费碳强度、能源消费规模、油气产出碳强度、产出规模对碳排放促进作用明显,投资效率则起到抑制作用。结合关键影响因素分析结果,并充分考虑绿色转型、稳油增气等能源安全新战略,采用情景分析法对4种不同情景下的油开采业未来碳排放量、碳达峰量、碳达峰时间进行分析预测;通过大力开发利用新能源,加大节能降耗力度,油气开采业有望在2030年实现碳达峰,峰值排放水平约9015×10^(4)t/a,符合行业碳达峰发展规划。最后,建议油气开采业因地制宜积极投资开发新能源,大力实施节能和化石能源替代工程,不断提高投资效率,降低投资和产出碳强度,确保碳达峰目标如期实现。Under the energy security and dual carbon strategy,China will unswervingly promote oil stabilization and gas increase,strive to maintain crude oil production at 2×108 t/a,and gradually increase natural gas production to about 3000×10^(8) m^(3)/a.In 2020,the CO_(2) emissions from energy utilization in China's oil and gas extraction industry reached 8758×10^(4) t,facing significant emission reduction pressure under the constraint of the"dual carbon"target.Based on the relevant historical data of China's oil and gas extraction industry from 2010 to 2020,taking full account of the characteristics of the oil and gas extraction industry,eight index parameters related to energy consumption,fixed assets investment,and oil and gas production are introduced to build an improved STIRPAT model.The relationship between various influencing factors and carbon emissions is analyzed in combination with ridge regression analysis.The carbon intensity of energy consumption,the scale of energy consumption,the carbon intensity of oil and gas production,and the scale of production play an obvious role in promoting carbon emissions,while investment efficiency plays an inhibitory role.Combining the analysis results of key influencing factors and fully considering new energy security strategies such as green transformation and stabilizing oil and gas production,scenario analysis method is used to analyze and predict the future carbon emissions,peak carbon emissions,and peak carbon time of the oil extraction industry under four different scenarios.By vigorously developing and utilizing new energy,increasing energy conservation and consumption reduction efforts,the oil and gas extraction industry is expected to achieve carbon peak by 2030,with a peak emission level of approximately 9015×10^(4) t/a,in line with the industry's carbon peak development plan.Finally,it is recommended that the oil and gas extraction industry actively invest in the development of new energy according to local conditions,vigorously implement energy-saving and a

关 键 词：油气开采业 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 岭回归分析 情景分析法 

分 类 号：TE34[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程] X741[环境科学与工程—环境工程]