基于改进AHP-FBN的沿海储罐定量风险评价  

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Coastal Storage Tank Based on Improved AHP-FBN

作　　者：石磊 齐盛 帅健[2] 刘芃 周立国 SHI Lei;QI Sheng;SHUAI Jian;LIU Peng;ZHOU Liguo(Dalian Research Institute of Petroleum and Petrochemicals Co,Ltd.,SINOPEC,Dalian,Liaoning 116045,China;College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co.,Ltd.,Yantai,Shandong 265715,China)

机构地区：[1]中石化(大连)石油化工研究院有限公司,辽宁大连116045 [2]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102249 [3]山东裕龙石化有限公司,山东烟台265715

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期134-142,共9页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：中国石油化工股份有限公司中国石油大学(北京)战略合作科技开发项目“沿海炼厂储罐腐蚀评价及防护技术”(321057)。

摘　　要：由于沿海地区气候影响,储罐易遭受内、外环境的腐蚀,增加了储罐的风险水平,影响寿命和运行安全。准确计算失效概率、识别主要影响事件是沿海储罐风险评价的关键。针对沿海储罐失效特点和层次分析法(AHP)的缺陷,提出了改进AHP来融合专家意见,结合模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)计算沿海储罐失效的概率值,识别造成储罐失效的关键事件,以期准确、快速地对沿海储罐安全状态进行分析和评价。通过实例应用证明,此方法能够有效地融合专家意见,计算得出的沿海储罐失效概率更加接近统计值,可靠地识别出关键事件,可为管理者提供如何优化风险管理策略和实现有限应急资源配置的重要支持信息。Due to the influence of climate in coastal areas,storage tanks are prone to corrosion from internal and external environments,which increases the risk level of storage tanks and affects their life and operation safety.Accurate calculation of failure probability and effective identification of main influencing events are the keys to risk assessment of coastal storage tanks.In view of the failure characteristics of coastal storage tanks and the defects of analytic hierarchy process(AHP),it is proposed to improve AHP by integrating expert opinions and being combined with fuzzy Bayesian network,and to use the improved AHP calculates the failure probability of coastal storage tanks and identifies the key events that cause the failure of storage tanks,so as to analyze and evaluate the safety status of the coastal storage tanks accurately and quickly.Application examples show that this method can effectively integrate expert opinions,and the calculated failure probability of coastal storage tanks is close to the statistical value,and the critical events can be reliably identified,which can provide important supporting information for managers on optimizing risk management strategies and realizing limited resource allocations.

关 键 词：沿海储罐 改进AHP 模糊贝叶斯网络 风险评价 失效概率 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]